The State of the Economy for July 2025

In this episode, we break down the latest data from The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, released today. The numbers show a modest but notable improvement in consumer sentiment as we move through summer 2025. We explore: 

• Overall Confidence Ticks Up: The Consumer Confidence Index rose by 2.0 points to 97.2, rebounding from a revised June figure of 95.2. This marks the second month of stabilization following a sharp decline in April. 

• Mixed Views on the Present: The Present Situation Index dipped slightly to 131.5, reflecting a small deterioration in consumers' views on current business and job market conditions. 

• Looking Ahead:The Expectations Index saw a more significant rise—up 4.5 points to 74.4—indicating reduced pessimism about future income, employment, and business prospects. However, it remains under the 80-point threshold that typically signals looming recession risks—for the sixth month in a row.