The Take

How close is the US to war with Venezuela?

Dec 4, 2025
In this discussion, Alejandro Velasco, an Associate Professor at NYU specializing in Latin American studies, sheds light on the alarming U.S. military buildup near Venezuela. He unpacks how this escalation feels unique compared to past interventions and tackles the political motives behind Trump's 'narco-terrorism' rhetoric. Velasco also explores the implications of possible regime changes and highlights the resilience of everyday Venezuelans amid growing tensions. His insights provide a nuanced understanding of a potentially escalating conflict.
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INSIGHT

Unprecedented U.S. Military Presence

  • The U.S. has deployed its most significant Caribbean military presence in the 21st century, raising regional tensions.
  • Alejandro Velasco warns this scale is unprecedented outside planned exercises and few 20th-century parallels exist.
INSIGHT

Narco-Terrorism Framing Serves Political Base

  • The Trump administration emphasizes 'narco-terrorism' because it appeals to its political base more than open regime-change rhetoric.
  • Velasco says this framing masks material aims and wins domestic political support.
INSIGHT

Oil As The Material Driver

  • Donald Trump prioritizes material, executable strategies over ideology when considering Venezuela.
  • Velasco argues oil reserves are the likely material objective behind possible interventions.
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