Follow the data: the search for COVID’s origin (Ep 105)
Sep 8, 2023
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Alina Chan, postdoc at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, discusses the search for COVID's origin. The podcast explores the possibilities of zoonotic transfer and lab-leak theory. The lack of conclusive evidence and the co-opting of the investigation are also highlighted. The conversation delves into the implications for future pandemics and the importance of following the data.
The Wuhan Institute of Virology had less stringent safety protocols, increasing the risk of a lab leak.
The lack of intermediate hosts and controversies surrounding the Huanan seafood market raise doubts about the natural origin of COVID-19.
Access to lab records and international communications is crucial for investigating the origin of SARS-CoV-2.
Deep dives
The Biosafety Level 2 Conditions in the Lab
The Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) primarily studied live and recombinant viruses under Biosafety Level 2 (BSL-2) conditions, which are significantly less stringent than BSL-3 or BSL-4. This means that the bio-containment measures and safety protocols were not as robust as those in higher-level labs. Additionally, photos have surfaced showing scientists handling bats without proper personal protective equipment (PPE). While this does not suggest intentional negligence, it highlights the lack of strict safety practices in place. There were also reports of a missing database at the WIV, which contained important information about the viruses they were studying, making it difficult to determine what samples were collected and what experiments were conducted.
The Potential for Lab Leak
The possibility of a lab leak cannot be definitively ruled out. While the origins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus remain uncertain, it is challenging to distinguish between a natural spillover theory and a lab leak hypothesis. The Wuhan lab conducted research under BSL-2 conditions, which increase the risk of accidental leakages. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the lab handled viruses collected from the wild and practiced serial passage techniques to grow and study the viruses, potentially leading to adaptations and increased transmissibility. There are gaps in knowledge regarding the viruses studied at the lab, as well as limited external access to their database, making it challenging to fully investigate the possibility of a lab leak.
Controversies Surrounding the Market Hypothesis
While the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan has been implicated as the origin of the outbreak, there are conflicting pieces of evidence. Notably, the expected intermediate hosts, which were easily identified in previous outbreaks like SARS and MERS, have not been found for SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, there were reports of farms being shut down without proper testing, creating doubts about a thorough investigation into the market. These controversies highlight the need for a comprehensive investigation to clarify the origins of the pandemic.
Importance of Investigating the Origins
Given the uncertainties surrounding the origins of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential implications for public health, it is crucial to conduct a thorough investigation. The conditions and safety practices at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the involvement of live viruses in their research raise valid concerns. The possibility of accidental lab leakages should not be dismissed, and a proper investigation would help establish transparency, accountability, and learning for future outbreaks.
Investigating the Natural Origin
Scientists are debating whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus, responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, emerged naturally or was created in a lab. The presence of a unique cleavage site in the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 that aids in infecting cells is a key argument in the debate. While some scientists argue that similar cleavage sites have been found in other coronaviruses, suggesting a natural origin, others highlight evidence suggesting that researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology had proposed inserting such cleavage sites into SARS-CoV viruses just a few years prior. The investigation into the pandemic's origin requires access to lab records and communications between international scientists to shed light on the truth.
The Need for Transparency and Safeguarding
To prevent future pandemics, there is a need to improve transparency and safety in virology research. Suggestions include relocating high-containment labs to remote areas with strong quarantine measures and setting strict criteria for publishing research on potentially risky experiments. Collaboration and information-sharing among researchers, funding organizations, and journals should be encouraged, ensuring that data and sequences are shared promptly and openly to allow for efficient monitoring and study of emerging viruses. Building public trust, incentivizing whistleblowing, and investing in secure channels for international information flow are crucial steps in preparing for future pandemics.
On this episode, we talk with Alina Chan, postdoc at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard and co-author with Matt Ridley of Viral: The Search for the Origin of COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 could have plausibly jumped into humans in Wuhan via one of two paths. The first is zoonotic transfer from wild bats to humans, possibly via an intermediate animal host. The second is some kind of lab accident: researchers working on a SARS-CoV-2-like virus accidentally became infected with it and then transmitted it to others in Wuhan. Although early discussions among virologists reached the consensus that the origin was almost surely zoonotic, more recent discussions have started to take the lab-leak theory seriously. Unfortunately, we still lack conclusive evidence in support of either hypothesis. And, as public leaders have co-opted the investigation for nonscientific reasons, the subject of COVID’s origin has become practically taboo.
Alina’s approach is to “follow the data,” leaving no stone unturned, and we believe that it is our responsibility as scientists to do the same. We talk to Alina about her book, as well as the many new things that have been revealed about COVID’s origins since its 2021 publication. Towards the end of the chat, we discuss the implications of what we’ve learned about SARS-CoV-2 for how we should prepare for and deal with future pandemics.
We hope that this episode inspires you to seek the best possible explanation of COVID origins. Please write to info@bigbiology.org and tell us what you think, and share with friends and family.
Cover art: Keating Shahmehri
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