The fall of Assad in Syria and its impact on the Middle East
Dec 8, 2024
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After the fall of Assad's regime in Syria, the podcast dives into the shifting power dynamics in the Middle East and the impact on regional stability. The discussions reveal how diminished support from allies like Russia and Iran accelerated Assad's downfall. Insights also cover South Korea's recent martial law and the historical ties to its democratic struggles. Furthermore, the podcast explores Russia's growing influence in Eastern Europe, particularly in Georgia and Romania, amidst rising tensions with the West.
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Quick takeaways
The collapse of Assad's regime highlights the fragility of authoritarian rule in Syria amid external conflicts and internal challenges.
South Korea's recent martial law declaration underscores deep political polarization and raises concerns about the future of its democratic norms.
Deep dives
The Fall of Bashar al-Assad's Regime
The Assad regime in Syria collapsed following a swift offensive by opposition forces, marking the end of over five decades of authoritarian rule. The lack of external support from key allies like Russia and Iran, which were preoccupied with their own conflicts, played a crucial role in the regime's downfall. This rapid change led to jubilant celebrations in Damascus, where formerly oppressed citizens cheered the insurgents. However, despite the apparent victory, significant challenges remain as various factions, including ISIS and Kurdish forces, still control parts of the country, hinting at a potential resurgence of conflict.
Crisis of Democratic Institutions in South Korea
The declaration of martial law by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol sparked a nationwide crisis, leading to his rapid reversal of the order amid parliamentary pushback. This incident reflects a broader political polarization in South Korea, characterized by extreme divisions and ongoing dissatisfaction with government effectiveness. Yoon's actions seemed rooted in desperation, revealing a contentious power struggle reminiscent of past authoritarian regimes. The precarious state of democratic norms raises concerns about the future governance of South Korea, especially in light of historical fears of military overreach.
Geopolitical Tensions in Eastern Europe
Protests erupted in Georgia as citizens reacted to their government’s decision to delay Euro-Atlantic integration, reflecting rising tensions between pro-Western and pro-Russian sentiments. The government's backtracking on EU negotiations appeared intentional, aiming to suppress protests during a winter lull, but resulted in widespread demonstrations. Amidst potential conflict, many Georgians remain committed to opposing Russian influence, fearing the loss of national sovereignty. This situation parallels earlier political upheavals in the region, hinting at broader unrest fueled by external pressures from Russia.
Changing Trust Dynamics in Liberal Democracies
Trust in traditional political institutions has waned significantly across democracies, with a notable shift towards individual figures and alternative sources of information. Surveys indicate high levels of frustration with elected officials, leading the public to channel their trust into personalities, such as podcasters and political outsiders, rather than established institutions. This transition poses risks for liberal democracy, which relies on institutional integrity rather than individual authority. Scholars emphasize that successful nations depend on strong, fair institutions, making the current trends of distrust potentially detrimental to societal stability and governance.
Today on the show: after Syrian rebels took Damascus, Fareed is joined by Natasha Hall, senior fellow at the CSIS Middle East Program, and Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to discuss what the fall of Assad’s regime means for Syria and the region.
Then, former senior CIA and State Department official Jung Pak speaks with Fareed about South Korea’s brief period of martial law this week, why President Yoon decided to make the declaration, and what might come next.
Finally, Anne Applebaum, staff writer at The Atlantic, joins the show to discuss the unrest in Georgia and Romania, and Russia’s widening influence in Europe.
GUEST: Natasha Hall (@NatashaHallDC), Karim Sadjadpour (@ksadjadpour), Jung Pak (@junghpak1), Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum)