EconoFact Chats

Long Run Fiscal Solvency and Its Consequences

Apr 6, 2025
Ben Harris, a former Treasury Chief Economist, and Wendy Edelberg, director at the Hamilton Project, tackle the pressing issue of U.S. federal debt and its potential economic fallout. They discuss the unsustainable growth of debt relative to income and its implications for Social Security, particularly for future retirees facing possible cuts. The conversation highlights the need for bipartisan solutions to ensure fiscal solvency and maintain equitable support for the economy. Tune in for insights on the balance between government spending and the financial security of individuals!
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INSIGHT

Debt-to-GDP Ratio

  • Express federal debt as a ratio relative to GDP, such as 98% of GDP in late 2024.
  • This provides context, as opposed to citing trillions of dollars or other abstract measures.
INSIGHT

Historical Debt Fluctuations

  • The post-WWII debt-to-GDP ratio declined due to rapid growth and primary surpluses, but rose with tax cuts under Reagan and Bush.
  • Further increases resulted from wars, the 2008 financial crisis, and COVID-related spending.
ADVICE

Aiming for Primary Surplus

  • Congress should strive for a primary surplus when the economy isn't in recession.
  • Moderate tax increases and spending cuts can get us there without drastically changing the system.
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