Should Starmer impose retaliatory tariffs? Plus local elections lookahead
Apr 2, 2025
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In this discussion, Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, shares insights on the polling landscape regarding potential UK retaliatory tariffs against US policies. He examines Keir Starmer's political challenges while managing relationships amid local election dynamics. With Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats gearing up for significant gains, Tryl highlights shifting voter loyalties and Labour's struggles amidst rising sentiment towards independent parties. The conversation sheds light on the evolving political climate and its implications for upcoming elections.
Public support for UK retaliatory tariffs against the US reveals a generational divide, with younger voters concerned about inflation effects.
The upcoming local elections could lead to significant gains for Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats, challenging the traditional two-party system.
Deep dives
Public Opinion on Retaliatory Tariffs
A recent survey indicates that the majority of the public supports the UK imposing retaliatory tariffs if the US initiates tariffs, despite concerns about inflation. Specifically, 55% of respondents favor such action, but there is a notable divide based on age; younger individuals, particularly those aged 18 to 34, are less supportive due to fears that it might exacerbate inflation. In contrast, older voters, particularly those aged 65 and above, are more in favor of imposing tariffs. This generational split reflects how recent economic challenges have shaped perspectives on fiscal policy.
Keir Starmer's Struggle with Public Perception
The discussion around Keir Starmer's approach to Donald Trump reveals a significant dilemma for the Labour Party as local elections approach. Some Labour MPs acknowledge a divide between popular expectations and political realities, with voters feeling that Starmer either needs to be more assertive or assertive enough against Trump. With the upcoming local elections, there is a concern that Labour voters are drifting towards alternative parties, such as the Liberal Democrats, especially if Starmer's negotiations with Trump are seen as ineffective. This tension could impact Labour’s electoral support if they fail to align their strategies with voter expectations.
Impacts of Local Elections on Political Dynamics
Local elections are poised to shift the political landscape, with predictions indicating potential gains for parties like Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats at the expense of established parties. The Conservative Party, in particular, is bracing for significant losses, anticipating that they may not retain many of the seats they gained during the previous election cycle. Furthermore, some emerging parties are eyeing local mayoral positions, which could signify a broader acceptance of their political messages among voters. As these dynamics unfold, it is clear that the traditional two-party system is increasingly being challenged, indicating shifts in voter allegiance and party performance.
It’s World Tariff Day – or Liberation Day, depending on what you prefer to call it – but we won’t know for certain what levies Donald Trump will impose on the world until around 9 p.m. this evening. Sources are speculating that Trump still isn’t 100 per cent sure himself. But as the UK awaits its fate, what is the polling saying: should Starmer stand up to Trump?
Also on the podcast, it’s just under a month until the local elections, and we have seen big launch events from Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats. These are the parties expecting to do well – potentially winning upwards of 400 council seats each. Labour and the Tories, meanwhile, are managing expectations. After some internal turbulence over the last month or so, could the local elections put Reform back on track? Who will be the biggest loser?
Katy Balls speaks to James Heale and Luke Tryl, executive director of the polling company More in Common.
Produced by Oscar Edmondson.
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