The Bitcoin Layer Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch: Short-Term Holders in Control
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Sep 24, 2025 Johan Bergman, a research associate specializing in Bitcoin price metrics, dives into the intricacies of Bitcoin's trading dynamics. He reveals how the short-term holder cost basis has influenced price action for three years, and highlights the significance of the $104,000 level. Johan discusses the role of RSI and Bollinger Bands in analyzing market trends, as well as the implications of realized volatility on price behavior. The conversation provides keen insights into support levels and the ongoing impact of institutional demand on the market.
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Short-Term Holder Range Defines Market
- Bitcoin has traded within ±1 standard deviation of the short-term holder realized price for about three years.
- That range now defines the market mean and frames bullish vs cautious zones.
Use Three-Day RSI For Cleaner Signals
- Use a three-day RSI to reduce daily noise while getting earlier signals than the weekly chart.
- Combine the RSI with a moving average to decide entry or trend direction triggers.
Falling Realized Volatility Signals Maturity
- Realized volatility has structurally declined, reducing extreme BART-style spikes.
- This compression signals Bitcoin is maturing as an asset class with more muted large moves.