Retirement Starts Today Your $135,000 Retirement Risk
Aug 24, 2026
They unpack Milliman’s $135,000 long-term care figure and what it actually represents. They compare short, costly care episodes with multi-year care that can reach six figures. They explore sex differences in expected long-term care costs. They weigh options like using home equity, insurance, annuities, or self-funding for this tail risk.
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What The $135,000 Number Actually Means
- Milliman's 2025 index says an average 65-year-old needs a $135,000 lump sum today to cover expected lifetime long-term care costs.
- That assumes commercial rates, no reimbursements, and a portfolio earning 4.35% annually on the lump sum.
Average Hides A Tale Of Two Outcomes
- The $135,000 average blends two very different outcomes: about half who need paid care use under a year (~$30,000).
- The other half with 5+ years average roughly $665,000, so the mean masks extreme tail risk.
Why Women Face Much Higher Long-Term Care Costs
- Milliman estimates differ by gender: $98,000 for men and $171,000 for women, ~75% higher for women.
- Reasons: women live longer, need paid care more often, and have longer care durations (14% of women need 5+ years vs 6% of men).