Security in the Indo-Pacific with Assistant Secretary of Defense Ely Ratner
Feb 13, 2024
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Assistant Secretary of Defense Ely Ratner discusses North Korean intentions, American military posture, South Korea-Japan cooperation, Chinese military modernization, corruption in the Chinese military, and deterring an attack on Taiwan.
China's aggressive military modernization program includes investments in nuclear power, cyber capabilities, and space technology, but concerns about corruption and its impact on military readiness persist.
Taiwan has made significant efforts in defense reform and modernization, increasing defense spending, and focusing on combat credible deterrence and building a coalition of democratic nations for regional security.
Deep dives
China's Military Modernization and Corruptions
China continues its aggressive military modernization program across all domains, investing in nuclear power, cyber capabilities, and space technology. However, there are concerns about corruption and its effects on their military capabilities. Recent purging and termination of senior PLA leaders due to corruption highlights the systemic rot within the organization and questions the readiness of the Chinese military. While China's military modernization is significant, it does not mean an imminent invasion of Taiwan. The US and its allies are focused on strengthening deterrence through combat credible capabilities, force posture, new operational concepts, and cooperation with partners in the region.
Taiwan's Defense Efforts and Deterrence
Taiwan has shown a transformation in its military thinking and urgency in defense reform. There have been major increases in defense budget and efforts towards modernization, with defense spending now at around 2.5% of GDP. While some argue for more spending, there has been progress in strengthening Taiwan's military capabilities. Deterrence remains crucial, with a focus on maintaining peace and stability in the region through combat credible deterrence, force posture, operational challenges for China's military, and building a coalition among democratic nations in support of regional security.
The Importance of Force Posture and Regional Cooperation
Force posture plays a crucial role in deterring aggression and maintaining regional stability. The US has been working towards a more distributed, mobile, and resilient force posture in the Indo-Pacific, solidifying alliances and partnerships. Recent agreements with Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and Papua New Guinea have strengthened defense relationships, enhancing deterrence against potential adversaries. The US is also investing in its defense industrial base to improve capability and readiness. These efforts help reinforce deterrence, making it more challenging for China to execute a short, sharp, and low-cost invasion.
Deterrence Challenges and Lessons from History
While maintaining deterrence is crucial, historical lessons remind us of the challenges. The pace of Chinese military modernization raises concerns, and leaders often miscalculate the duration and costs of conflicts. However, there is confidence that an invasion of Taiwan is neither imminent nor inevitable as long as deterrence remains strong. The US and its allies need to continue investing in capabilities, strengthening alliances, and presenting operational dilemmas for China. By doing so, they can maintain a balance that dissuades aggression without indirectly pushing towards conflict.
Ryan and Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, chatted about, well, it's in his job title. They discussed North Korean intentions, American military posture, deepening cooperation between South Korea and Japan, Chinese military modernization, corruption in the Chinese military, and deterring an attack on Taiwan.
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