The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Why is Rick Rieder the best person to replace Jerome Powell?
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Nov 13, 2025 The discussion centers on the pressing need for new Fed leadership to address the K-shaped economy. Darius critiques the current reliance on outdated data and its potential to worsen inequality. He argues that inflation often lags recessions, complicating timely policy decisions. Highlighting the adverse effects of Fed policies on lower-income households, he endorses Rick Rieder as a candidate who brings both intelligence and emotional understanding to the role. The conversation also touches on innovative risk management strategies and tools for navigating macroeconomic challenges.
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Powell Fed's Backward-Looking Policy Risk
- The Powell Fed uses a backward-looking reaction function that relies on lagging data.
- This approach risks mistiming policy because inflation and other indicators lag the business cycle by 12–24 months.
Prepare For Data Resumption And Market Risk
- Investors should prepare for the resumption of delayed economic data and potential market dislocations.
- Monitor Treasury yields and move indexes as they can signal risk of meaningful corrections when data backlog clears.
Inflation Lags The Business Cycle
- Inflation is one of the most lagging indicators, often breaking down only 12–15 months after recessions begin.
- Relying on such lagging indicators to set policy can deepen inequality and misallocate economic pain.