Raoul Pal: The Journey Man Equities Are Back, Baby...! ft. Andreas Steno
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Oct 9, 2025 Andreas Steno, a macro and business-cycle analyst and founder of Steno Research, joins the conversation to explore the evolving landscape of finance. They discuss the shift from central bank liquidity to private credit creation, highlighting its global implications. The duo also dives into how AI and demographics are driving the need for robotics and automation. They dissect the mainstream adoption of the debasement trade across gold and crypto, and forecast an investment cycle extending into 2026 with promising thematic equity opportunities.
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S&P PMI Beats ISM For Domestic Activity
- The S&P PMI better predicts domestic production one quarter ahead than the ISM PMI.
- Andreas Steno says S&P PMI focuses on domestic SMEs while ISM leans on cross-border big industry signals.
Liquidity Shifted To Private Banks And Treasury
- Credit creation moved from central bank balance sheets into the private sector and the Treasury since 2023.
- Andreas Steno highlights banks and fiscal deficits as the main liquidity engines while the Fed's balance sheet stayed flat.
Curve Steepening Rebooted Bank Lending
- Allowing long-term yields to rise restored profitability for Japanese banks and they began lending again.
- Steno argues curve steepening reactivated private credit supply in Japan and elsewhere.