Panic World The sicko who invented prediction markets
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Jul 22, 2026 
Charlie Warzel, journalist and Galaxy Brain podcaster, returns to unpack prediction markets and their strange rise. They trace their DARPA roots and Robin Hanson’s futarchy idea. Conversations hit crypto culture, insider-trading risks, and how betting reshapes attention and incentives.
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DARPA Tested Prediction Markets As Intel Tools
- Prediction markets were explored by DARPA after 9/11 as an intelligence tool to forecast political instability.
- Robin Hanson pushed markets as aggregators of knowledge that might flag terrorism risks by monetizing private beliefs.
Futarchy Is Markets Deciding Policy
- Robin Hanson invented futarchy: elect officials but use prediction markets to pick policies by expected population benefit.
- Futarchy merges market price signals with governance, envisioned as
Hanson's Sex Distribution Essay Triggered Backlash
- Robin Hanson published a 2018 Substack essay
