How to Make Decisions in Uncertain Times with Scott Marshall

Uncertain times are a certainty in leadership. Whether it’s economic volatility, organizational shifts, or global instability, leaders consistently encounter a high degree of uncertainty. Today, business leaders must navigate unpredictable complexities while maintaining confidence and clarity. 

In this timely episode of The Leadership Habit Podcast, host Jenn DeWall welcomed CEO Scott Marshall. Tune in to learn all about how leaders can make good decisions, even when things are uncertain.

Meet Scott Marshall

Scott Marshall hosts the As Unexpected Podcast and is President and CEO of the Institute for Shipboard Education. This 61-year-old nonprofit directs Semester at Sea, the world’s leading comparative study abroad program. 

Before joining Semester at Sea, Scott was a Professor of Management. He also served as Vice Provost and Interim Dean at Portland State University’s College of Business. Scott’s passion for global education and travel began during his undergraduate study abroad program in Japan. 

As a business professor, he wrote and published over 40 articles, book chapters, and case studies. His work focused on management, marketing, and international studies. During his time in academia, he also taught various courses in strategy, entrepreneurship, and management. 

Why It’s Hard to Make Decisions in Uncertainty

Scott explains, “Humans inherently overweight the improbable and underweight those things that are very likely.” This cognitive bias complicates the decision-making process, making it challenging for business leaders to assess risk rationally. In high-stake situations, leaders often freeze, delay, or make ineffective choices. This isn’t due to incompetence but because their brains naturally misjudge probabilities.

In today’s hyper-connected, demanding environment, the pressure to make quick decisions can feel overwhelming. However, effective decision-making demands patience and reflection, especially when the stakes are high.

Step One: Slow Down and Get Grounded

Even under tight deadlines and immense pressure, slowing down is crucial. Scott advocates pausing to avoid rushed, ill-informed choices. “Slow down, pause, seek multiple inputs, and understand the situation better,” he advised. Good decisions stem from clarity, not haste.

Scott uses a straightforward yet powerful decision-making framework: a two-by-two grid evaluating urgency and impact. This simple grid helps leaders prioritize where to allocate resources and attention. 

“If something is high impact and high urgency, guess where my time is going?” Scott shared. “Simple tools help us pause and work within our authenticity.”

Embrace Uncertainty with Humility and Curiosity

Confidence doesn’t come from having every answer—it arises from acknowledging uncertainty. Scott reminded listeners, “Not knowing is true knowledge.” This humility fosters openness to new insights, reducing the likelihood of biased or uninformed decisions.

Scott emphasizes curiosity as an essential leadership quality—but with a crucial twist. “Curiosity isn’t just about learning new things. It’s the willingness to actually change what you think could be true based on what you learn,” he explained. Integrating curiosity into the decision-making process ensures that leaders continuously update their perspective and make informed decisions that reflect the current reality.

The Three Anchors for Leading Through Uncertainty

Scott refined his leadership philosophy during a period of significant organizational crisis. Facing extreme uncertainty, he identified three core anchors to guide effective decision-making:

• Courage: “The willingness to take action amid uncertainty.”
• Compassion: “The open heart to consider the other before yourself.”
• Curiosity: “The willingness to change your mind or belief based on what you learn.”

These three anchors helped him through uncertain times. They also strengthened his ability to make good decisions and lead with integrity and resilience.

Communication is Key

Once a decision is made, effective communication is essential. Scott stressed the importance of clearly explaining decisions. “Articulation is comfort,” he explained. Taking time to communicate transparently and thoughtfully helps teams understand decisions, builds trust, and maintains organizational cohesion, even when results differ from expectations.

Scott also explained that communication should involve diverse stakeholders, allowing leaders to hear differing perspectives and refine messages accordingly. “When you bring varied viewpoints together, you create a balanced, thoroughly considered decision,” he noted.

Connect with Scott Marshall

Want to learn more or continue the conversation? Connect with Scott here:

• Check out Semester at Sea
• Listen to his podcast: As Unexpected 
• Connect on LinkedIn: Scott Marshall

Ready to Strengthen Your Decision-Making Skills?

Crestcom offers a complimentary leadership skills workshop designed to provide strategies to lead effectively—even during uncertain times. Discover proven methods to improve decision-making, build trust, and enhance your leadership effectiveness.

Request your free workshop at crestcom.com/freeworkshop

 

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