The Macro Dirt Podcast Reunited and It Feels So Good
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May 22, 2025 Tony and Jared dive deep into the hidden cracks in the market, hinting that bonds may soon take a wild turn. Gold appears to be in the know, while retail still clings to 2021 habits. The discussion turns to Japan's faltering bond market and rising credit default swaps, painting a picture of uncertainty. Philosophical musings from Machiavelli converge with stock insights, specifically around the fertilizer giant Mosaic. They also touch on a lively interview with Jawad and Steve Cohen, blending economic insights with lighthearted banter.
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Jared's Writing Sprint in Oxford
- Jared Dillian wrote 30,000 words in a week during his stay in Oxford, Mississippi.
- He completed his portfolio book and started a new novel titled Inflation Fighter.
Credit Crisis in US and Japan
- The US is experiencing a slow detonating credit crisis mainly due to credit issues, not duration.
- Japan's bond market is collapsing with JGB yields above 3%, signaling insolvency risks.
Watch Yields, Gold as Signals
- If 10-year Treasury yields rise above 5.5-6%, expect discussions on yield curve control intervention.
- Gold acts as a release valve amid market stresses, so consider its movement carefully.