Mark Moss: Get Ready for an Inflationary Crash in Bitcoin, Real Estate & Stocks
Sep 16, 2024
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Mark Moss, a savvy investor and YouTube host, dives deep into the potential for an impending crash and the dynamics of inflation versus deflation. He discusses why housing remains out of reach and ponders if Bitcoin should already be over $100k, emphasizing its ties to global liquidity. Mark also analyzes how upcoming elections could reshape Bitcoin’s landscape and the role of monetary trends in investment strategies. With insights on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, he promotes patience and strategic thinking for long-term success.
Mark Moss emphasizes the potential for an inflationary scenario where asset prices rise despite stagnant wages, highlighting the impact on living standards.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election could significantly influence Bitcoin's future, depending on the candidates' stances towards cryptocurrency adoption and regulation.
Deep dives
The Necessity of Expansion in a Debt-Based Monetary System
Understanding that the financial system operates on a debt-based monetary model reveals the need for continual expansion, even though this may not follow a linear path. The Federal Reserve's history of tightening since late 2021 illustrates this, as layoffs and inflation changes have recently forced a pivot towards lowering rates. Economic indicators, such as unemployment rates ticking up and inflation beginning to cool, suggest this easing cycle is imminent. Consequently, other central banks are also preparing to follow suit, hinting at a synchronized global easing that is expected to boost market liquidity.
Bitcoin's Market Dynamics Amidst Global Liquidity Trends
Bitcoin's performance has been relatively stable, even as global liquidity dynamics shift. Although predictions of Bitcoin soaring to six figures have not yet manifested, data indicates that it has appreciated significantly over the past year, outperforming traditional assets like the S&P 500. The interplay between global liquidity and Bitcoin has demonstrated a latency effect, where Bitcoin tends to react after broader liquidity increases. Thus, as liquidity rises, a significant surge in Bitcoin’s value is anticipated, potentially aligning with historical patterns observed in previous market cycles.
Political Landscapes and Their Influence on Bitcoin Adoption
The potential outcomes of the upcoming U.S. presidential election could greatly impact Bitcoin's trajectory, given the contrasting stances of candidates on cryptocurrency. Historical data suggests that during the first three years of an administration, stock markets generally see significant gains, which may include Bitcoin's value. If candidates supporting a pro-Bitcoin agenda gain office, the competitive pressure may prompt nations to consider adopting similar policies, leading to a massive increase in Bitcoin's mainstream acceptance. Conversely, more restrictive policies could stall momentum, but Bitcoin's decentralized nature suggests it will continue to thrive globally regardless of local regulations.
Navigating the Future: Inflationary Pressures and Bitcoin's Role
Expectations of rising inflation pose a significant concern for the average citizen as a potential decline in living standards looms due to stagnant wages against climbing prices. Rather than predicting a conventional market crash, the possibility of an inflationary scenario where asset prices continue to rise while purchasing power diminishes is more likely. Such conditions may bolster interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against currency devaluation, supporting its role as 'hard money' in an unpredictable financial landscape. Furthermore, as broader adoption of Bitcoin and integration into various use cases continues, it may ultimately transcend traditional transactional frameworks.
In this conversation with entrepreneur Mark Moss we discuss:
Mark's macro outlook and potential election outcome implications
Is a crash around the corner? Will it be inflationary or deflationary?
Why housing won't become affordable any time soon
Shouldn't Bitcoin be over $100k?
Bitcoin's correlation to global liquidity (M2)
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Bio: Mark Moss is a professional investor and host of the @1MarkMoss and @MarketDisruptors1 YouTube channels. Mark has been talking Bitcoin across YouTube, Podcast and Radio for years, reaching over 100 million views. He's a frequent speaker at Bitcoin, Investing and Technology conferences and a regular contributor on TV and YouTube as well as the co-author to the best selling book The UnCommunist Manifesto. Mark is a partner at the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, investing and advising companies building in the Bitcoin ecosystem and is also a Strategic Bitcoin Advisor to the newly launched public company Matador focusing on Bitcoin L2's.
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