Antony Green on the seats that could decide the 2025 election
Jan 1, 2025
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Antony Green, ABC's Chief Elections Analyst, breaks down the shifting dynamics ahead of the 2025 Australian federal election. He discusses how high interest rates and cost of living pressures are influencing voter concerns. Green also highlights significant changes in electoral boundaries, including new and removed seats, which could reshape party competitiveness. He emphasizes the government’s precarious majority and the emerging political movements that might alter traditional voting patterns. This conversation is a must-listen for anyone keen on Australian politics!
The Albanese government, with only 78 seats, faces a precarious position ahead of the 2025 election due to potential voter swings.
High interest rates and cost-of-living pressures are expected to dominate the campaign issues for both major parties in 2025.
Deep dives
Challenges for the Albanese Government
The Albanese government faces significant challenges in the lead-up to the 2025 election, with only 78 seats in parliament. They can only afford to lose two or three seats to maintain their majority, which is a precarious position given that current opinion polls indicate a swing of 1% against them across the country. This swing is critical, as it suggests a high likelihood of the government losing its majority, complicating their efforts to gain ground in a competitive electoral landscape. As the election year progresses, the government's ability to navigate these challenges will be central to its survival.
Key Issues Shaping the Election
High interest rates and cost-of-living pressures are poised to be the pivotal issues for both major political parties in the upcoming election. Messaging from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton indicates a focused approach on these pressing challenges, as both leaders have started making direct appeals to voters early in the year. The shifting electoral landscape, including the establishment of new electoral seats and the abolition of others, adds complexity to the campaign dynamics, potentially influencing where elections are won or lost. The evolving economic conditions will likely dictate voter sentiment and priorities leading up to the polls.
Shift in Party Dynamics and Voter Trends
There is an observable trend in Australia towards a decline in support for traditional major parties, a phenomenon also seen in democracies worldwide. While major parties still command a majority of the vote, the presence of third parties is steadily increasing, making contests less about Labor versus Coalition and more about a broader spectrum of choices. This shift was particularly pronounced in the last election, where numerous seats were contested outside the traditional framework, with many traditional seats claimed by independents. Understanding this changing landscape is crucial for both major parties as they strategize for an election that could see significant changes in their support bases.
Australians are guaranteed to head to the polls in the first five months of 2025.
And while high interest rates and cost of living pressures are expected to be the top concerns for both major parties and voters, the battleground itself will also look different, with new changes to electoral seats and boundaries.
Today, the ABC's Chief Elections Analyst Antony Green speaks with ABC News Radio’s Tom Melville about why the next parliament is set to change.
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Antony Green, ABC Chief Elections Analyst
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