Economic Forecasting for China in 2025

Forecasts indicate that China's economy may experience low growth, approximately in the low four percent range, primarily due to ongoing structural financial and fiscal imbalances. The government is aiming to maintain a growth target of around 5%, yet realistic projections suggest a more achievable target around 4.5%. Factors contributing to this outlook include necessary adjustments in the property sector and the need to boost private sector confidence, especially in light of a potential liquidity trap. Scenarios considering the impact of US tariffs also play a critical role, with a 'soft landing' predicted at a 65% probability, while more severe outcomes are deemed less likely.