New Books in Political Science Tyler Jost, "Bureaucracies at War: The Institutional Origins of Miscalculation" (Cambridge UP, 2024)
Oct 8, 2025
Tyler Jost, an assistant professor of political science at Brown University, dives into fascinating insights from his upcoming book, exploring why states often miscalculate in wars they are destined to lose. He explains how different bureaucratic structures influence leaders' access to critical information, leading to potential disasters. Jost uncovers surprising findings about the role of civilian bureaucracies and discusses the political compromises that drive leaders to neglect better institutional designs. His research offers valuable lessons for policymakers navigating complex international conflicts.
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Forecasting Requires Bureaucratic Information
- Leaders need accurate forecasting to avoid costly conflicts that yield little benefit.
- Bureaucracies collect dispersed information that leaders must aggregate to forecast outcomes effectively.
Institutions Shape Information Flows
- Institutional design shapes how information flows vertically to leaders and horizontally across agencies.
- Different designs (integrated, siloed, fragmented) produce systematically different information quality for leaders.
Integrated Vs. Siloed Vs. Fragmented
- Integrated institutions enable both vertical and horizontal information flow and improve decision quality.
- Siloed institutions send information up but block cross-agency scrutiny, while fragmented systems lack coherent flow.
