Ep 8: Should You Have Kids?

19 snips

Nov 13, 2024

Guest

Ross Douthat

Guest

Bryan Caplan

Ross Douthat, a New York Times columnist and father of five, and Bryan Caplan, an economics professor and author, dive into the shifting landscape of parenthood. They discuss how historical factors have influenced current fertility rates, revealing a global decline in births. The conversation challenges the stereotypes around parenting, weighing societal norms against personal choice. They also highlight the economic implications of fewer children and reflect on the pressures parents face today. Ultimately, they question the personal and societal values tied to family planning.

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ANECDOTE

Douthat's Overpopulation Project

Ross Douthat, as a high school student, researched overpopulation, focusing on Paul Ehrlich's predictions.
He found that Ehrlich's forecasts were inaccurate, especially in developed countries.

INSIGHT

Global Fertility Decline

Paul Ehrlich's overpopulation predictions, though inaccurate, influenced the view that more humans are inherently bad.
This view has shifted from overcrowding to environmental and moral arguments against having children.

INSIGHT

Population Clustering and Decline

Douthat notes a concerning trend of declining populations, particularly in certain cities.
Some cities may decline while others grow, creating a clustering effect and potentially more "ghost towns".

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For most of human history, having kids wasn’t much of a choice. Social expectations, lack of birth control, and limited autonomy for women presented a couple of options: Have children, or join a convent. But the 1960s ushered in a big change. With better options for birth control and expanded career opportunities for women, many people for the first time could choose how many children to have, and whether they should have any at all.

Fast-forward to today: More people are choosing not to have children for a wide range of reasons. Having children, of course, is a personal choice. But it’s a choice that has broader implications. Everywhere across the globe—the U.S., Europe, Asia, Africa—fewer children are being born. And strangely enough, having kids has become part of the culture wars. There are pro-natalist public figures like Elon Musk on one side saying everyone needs to have more kids now in order to save humanity. And on the other side, people like climate activist Greta Thunberg say rising sea levels are so catastrophic that having kids in this era is akin to genocide.

But there’s no debate that the fertility rate is plummeting in America and around the world. Presently, American women, on average, have 1.8 kids. In the 1950s, it was 3. The replacement rate in the United States, which is the fertility rate needed for a generation to replace itself without considering immigration, is approximately 2.1 births per woman. Around the world, the fertility rate fell by more than half between 1950 and 2021, as many countries became wealthier and women chose to have fewer children.

For economists like Emily, the speed with which the fertility rate is falling is cause for alarm. Economic growth depends, at least in part, on population growth. Retired people rely on generations of younger workers for support, through contributions to Social Security and taxes. With fertility rates in free fall, the math doesn’t add up.

That’s the big picture. Now back to our own families. Our series so far has focused on the state of our children. Today, we cap things off with a fundamental question: Should we even have kids in the first place, and what happens if we don’t?

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Resources from this episode:

Bryan Caplan: Selfish Reasons To Have More Kids (Bookshop)
Gina Rushton The Parenthood Dilemma: Procreation in the Age of Uncertainty (Bookshop)
Leah Libresco Sargeant
Helena de Groot
Ross Douthat