Sayash Kapoor, co-author of "AI Snake Oil" and a PhD candidate at Princeton, dives into the landscape of artificial intelligence. He discusses the stark differences between generative AI, which creates useful outputs, and predictive AI, often limited by data quality. Kapoor sheds light on the rapid pace of AI advancements, the role of geopolitics, especially China's competitive edge despite sanctions, and societal impacts like job displacement. He also advocates for a thoughtful approach to merit-based opportunities through a "partial lottery system" to address inequality.
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insights INSIGHT
AI Snake Oil
The book "AI Snake Oil" examines AI's limitations and exaggerated claims.
It draws a parallel between today's AI hype and historical "snake oil salesmen".
insights INSIGHT
Predictive AI's Limitations
Predictive AI, using past data to predict individual behavior, often fails.
Its shortcomings are inherent and difficult to fix, yet it's still widely sold.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Elaborate Random Number Generator
A company used video interviews to predict job candidate success, essentially like a random number generator.
Despite lacking validation, such tools are sold to many companies.
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What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference
Sayash Kapoor
Arvind Narayanan
AI Snake Oil cuts through the confusion surrounding AI by explaining how it works, where it might be useful or harmful, and when companies are using AI hype to sell ineffective products. The book acknowledges the potential of some AI, like ChatGPT, while uncovering rampant misleading claims and describing serious harms in areas such as education, medicine, hiring, banking, insurance, and criminal justice. It explains the differences between types of AI, why organizations fall for AI snake oil, and warns of the dangers of unaccountable big tech companies controlling AI.
In this episode, we look into the inflated claims about artificial intelligence, how to distinguish between predictive AI, which often fails to accurately predict individual behavior due to inherent limitations in forecasting and data quality, and generative AI, which is seen more favorably as it creates useful output rather than attempting future predictions. The conversation also touches upon the rapid advancements and decreasing costs of AI development, particularly highlighting the competitiveness of Chinese AI models despite sanctions, and explores the potential societal impacts of AI, including job displacement and the proposal of a "partial lottery system" to mitigate inequalities in merit-based systems.
Technological acceleration is increasing exponentially. Innovations that once took decades are now happening in a matter of years, or even months. AI, automation, and robotics are making jobs and industries obsolete while creating new roles and economic opportunities. To make sense of this acceleration our host John Xavier speaks to scientists, business leaders and policymakers on The Interface.
Guest: Sayash Kapoor, co-author of AI Snake Oil and computer science Ph.D. candidate at Princeton University.
The Interface 
