University of Michigan's Betsey Stevenson Talks 2024 Economic Outlook
Dec 22, 2023
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Betsey Stevenson, University of Michigan Economics Professor and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, discusses potential economic risks in 2024, wage growth versus inflation, US fiscal policy, and the conservative approach of the Fed to inflation.
Moderating inflation and ongoing economic growth defied economists' predictions of a recession with high unemployment.
The Fed may be cautious with rate cuts in 2024, but if current trends continue, cuts may be seen.
Deep dives
Inflation has been successfully moderated
The podcast discusses how inflation has been successfully moderated over the past year, with the core PCE running below the Fed's target. This outcome was not predicted by 85% of economists, who expected a recession with high unemployment and declining economic growth. The current situation of ongoing economic growth and moderating inflation is cause for celebration.
The Fed may be cautious with rate cuts
The Fed may be more cautious than expected in making rate cuts, as they want to ensure that inflation remains under control. With ongoing economic growth and inflation moderating, there is no immediate pressure for rate cuts. However, if the current trajectory continues, rate cuts may be seen in 2024.
Unknown factors may impact growth and inflation
The podcast highlights that the risks to both growth and inflation moving forward are uncertain and depend on various factors such as global political conflict, economies of trading partners, and supply chain disruptions. It is difficult to predict how these factors will affect the United States, and whether they will risk growth or inflation. However, at the present moment, the economy is experiencing strong growth and decreasing inflation.
University of Michigan Economics Professor and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Betsey Stevenson weighs in on whether we can declare victory over inflation yet, and discusses potential economic risks in 2024, wage growth versus inflation and US fiscal policy. She speaks with Bloomberg's Guy Johnson and Sonali Basak.