The Money Movement with Jeremy Allaire | Leaders in Blockchain, Crypto, DeFi & Financial Inclusion
Ep 95 | Inflation, Interest Rates, and Productivity | A Conversation with Kenneth Rogoff
Feb 8, 2024
Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the IMF, joins Jeremy Allaire to discuss interest rate trends, China's currency, modern monetary theory, radical tech disruption, CBDCs, and surveillance in this wide-ranging conversation on economics, technology, and policy.
31:04
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Quick takeaways
- Interest rates are showing a downward trend but not as sharp a decline as suggested by the secular stagnation theory, challenging the notion of perpetually low interest rates.
- While the chances of the Chinese RMB replacing the US dollar in the next 30 years are low, countries are exploring alternative currencies and building independent infrastructures, raising questions about the dollar's competitiveness.
Deep dives
Research on Long-Term Interest Rates and the Secular Stagnation Theory
The podcast discusses a research conducted by Ken Rogoff and his colleagues on long-term interest rates. While the conventional wisdom after the financial crisis was that interest rates would remain low indefinitely, the researchers found a downward trend in interest rates but not as sharp of a decline as suggested by the secular stagnation theory. This challenges the notion of a new normal where interest rates would remain perpetually low. The research raises questions about the long-term economic implications and how interest rates might impact the global political economy.
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