Adapting to the Unpredictable: Climate’s Impact on Irregular Warfare
Oct 31, 2024
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Sherri Goodman, a Senior Fellow at the Wilson Center and former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Environmental Security, joins Ambassador John Hennessey-Niland, a Professor at the Bush School and former U.S. Ambassador to Palau, to discuss the intersection of climate change and irregular warfare. They delve into how environmental shifts influence military strategies, the role of partnerships in addressing challenges, and the specific threats faced by Pacific island nations. Their insights highlight the urgent need for proactive climate security measures.
Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating resource scarcity and influencing the stability of nations globally.
Developing resilient partnerships through shared environmental initiatives enhances regional stability and improves military effectiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
Deep dives
Maritime Security and Rising Tensions
The shifting dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region are driven by maritime security challenges, particularly surrounding China's increasing assertiveness in territories like the South China Sea. Alongside the scrutiny on territorial disputes, regional allies face threats from climate change, which exacerbates the loss of their land and resources due to rising sea levels. This situation creates a delicate balance of power where U.S. alliances become crucial for maintaining stability, as allies contend with both external pressures and internal vulnerabilities. Therefore, recognizing the impact of climate change on maritime security is essential for strategic planning and military operations in the region.
Climate Change as a Security Threat
Climate change is acknowledged not only as an environmental issue but also as a significant threat multiplier that exacerbates existing security challenges globally. Factors such as resource scarcity, which can lead to conflict, and alterations in regional climates, directly influence the stability of various nations. The podcast highlights specific examples of how climate-induced crises have already reshaped political landscapes, impacting alliances and creating opportunities for both state and non-state actors to exploit these vulnerabilities. Consequently, a proactive approach to understanding and addressing these climate-related security issues is essential for national defense strategies.
Building Resilience through Partnerships
The development of resilient partnerships is a fundamental strategy for addressing climate-related security threats and enhancing regional stability. U.S. military engagement in the Indo-Pacific encompasses not only training and operational support but also assistance in building climate resilience among local communities, such as enhancing infrastructure for fresh water and disaster preparedness. By fostering trust and cooperation through shared environmental stewardship initiatives, long-term strategic relationships can be fortified. Such partnerships not only improve local capacities to respond to climate challenges but also enable the U.S. military to operate effectively in partnership with these nations.
Policy Recommendations for Future Security
To effectively counter the threats posed by climate change and its intersection with irregular warfare, several policy recommendations are proposed. These include enhancing predictive climate analytics to inform military strategies and operations, implementing resilient infrastructure projects in vulnerable regions, and promoting sustainable practices among local allies. Furthermore, investment in education and vocational training can serve to mitigate instability by providing populations with alternative livelihoods. Ultimately, a comprehensive approach that integrates climate considerations into defense planning will better prepare allied nations for the evolving security landscape.
Episode 117 examines the intersection of climate change, national security, and irregular warfare, with a particular focus on how environmental changes are reshaping global security challenges from the Arctic to the Pacific Islands.
Our guests begin by exploring pivotal moments in the evolution of environmental security and its impact on national defense policy. They then discuss how climate-related changes affect military operations and strategic partnerships, particularly in the Pacific region. The conversation continues with an analysis of how both state and non-state actors leverage environmental crises in irregular warfare tactics. They conclude by offering policy recommendations for addressing climate security challenges and building resilient international partnerships.
Sherri Goodman is a Senior Fellow at the Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program and Polar Institute. As the former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Environmental Security, she coined the term "threat multiplier" to describe climate change's impact on national security. She has served on numerous advisory boards and is the author of "Threat Multiplier: Climate, Military Leadership, and the Fight for Global Security."
Ambassador John Hennessey-Niland is a Professor of Practice at the Bush School of Government and Public Service. As the former U.S. Ambassador to Palau, he brings extensive experience in Pacific region affairs. His previous roles include serving as the foreign policy advisor to the Commander of U.S. Marine Corps Forces Pacific, and he has held various diplomatic positions across Europe and the Pacific, providing him with unique insights into the intersection of environmental security and irregular warfare.
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