Shashank Joshi, The Economist's defence editor, discusses how AI is transforming the prediction of political violence, offering insights into innovations like Raven's Sentry in Afghanistan. Sarah Burke, the bureau chief for Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, highlights Cuba's looming economic collapse amidst rising discontent. Meanwhile, Oliver Carroll brings life from Odessa, Ukraine, where beach culture is thriving despite the ongoing conflict, showcasing resilience in the face of adversity.
Artificial intelligence enhances intelligence analysis by predicting political violence more accurately, showcasing the power of machine learning in security operations.
Cuban economic struggles are deepening due to government mismanagement and inflation, leading to significant emigration and a push for external aid amidst a stagnant economy.
Deep dives
Cuba's Economic Crisis
Cuba is facing an acute economic crisis, exacerbated by factors such as government mismanagement, a centrally planned economy, and the fallout from the pandemic. Frequent blackouts and rampant inflation are common, while the cost of basic goods has skyrocketed, with a carton of eggs surpassing the monthly minimum wage. The Cuban government struggles to adapt, attempting to balance a tightening grip on the economy while also seeking external aid from allies like Russia and China. Despite superficial reforms, such as the introduction of small and medium-sized enterprises, the economy remains stagnant and unable to provide for its citizens, prompting significant emigration.
Intelligence Analysis and AI Integration
The integration of artificial intelligence into intelligence analysis has transformed how data related to political violence is processed. A program known as Raven Century demonstrates the use of machine learning to analyze historical violence data and its correlation with various social and environmental factors. This AI-driven analysis was instrumental in predicting potential attacks in Afghanistan, achieving a remarkable accuracy rate of 70%. The reliance on unclassified, open-source data highlighted the potential for AI to enhance human capabilities rather than completely replace them in intelligence operations.
Cultural Resilience Amidst Conflict in Ukraine
Despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, particularly the threats posed to cities like Odessa, a surprising revival of beach culture has emerged. Hotels are experiencing high occupancy rates as locals flock to the area for a semblance of normalcy amidst the chaos of war. Remarkably, the city’s beaches remain popular, with creative marketing strategies like promoting rentals on the non-drone facing side of town gaining traction. This resilience reflects a deeper desire among Ukrainians to reclaim aspects of life deemed normal and joyful, as seen through cultural activities like impromptu concerts and artistic expressions, despite a looming awareness of unrest.
Predicting political violence is a painstaking job. Now AI is helping analysts look for clues and throwing up fascinating insights into the shifts that may indicate a strike is coming. Why Cuba could be heading towards economic and social collapse (11:01). And our correspondent visits Odessa where Ukrainians are rediscovering the beach (18:54).