Commodity Cycles And Investor Sentiment Secrets

Jun 20, 2025

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Mukarram Mawjood is here to share on commodity cycles and investor sentiment secrets. He discusses his focus on alternative assets including precious metals, crypto, and real estate, highlighting silver as his top current pick due to its price lag behind gold and significant upside potential. He explains how gold’s recent surge has largely priced in geopolitical risk, while silver remains undervalued despite industrial demand. He also touches on market psychology, gold-to-silver ratios, and how cryptocurrencies are increasingly competing with gold as alternative stores of value.

We discuss...

Mukarram's firm invests heavily in physical metals, crypto, and real estate—assets with inverse correlation to the U.S. dollar.
Silver is seen as significantly undervalued relative to gold, presenting a price arbitrage opportunity.
He sees silver’s price lag as typical behavior in precious metal bull cycles, with major catch-up potential.
Central banks buying gold has driven recent price action, while silver remains overlooked by both institutions and retail investors.
Geopolitical tensions have driven gold's rise as a safe haven, but easing global instability could rotate capital into silver.
Mukarram emphasizes timing and patience—investors should scale into undervalued assets before the move happens.
Crypto has diverted some capital from gold but believes both assets serve different investor needs.
During COVID, gold quietly doubled from 1,200 to over 2,000, which many missed due to lack of long-term positioning.
Bitcoin and crypto sometimes move like metals, but when metals act as a safe haven, crypto typically does not.
Crypto currently offers opportunity not because it's strong, but because it’s been beaten down while gold rallied.
Bitcoin may still hit 100K–200K, but other assets may outperform it percentage-wise during its rise.
Ethereum has mixed sentiment in the crypto community, but Solana is gaining more institutional adoption.
Major crypto news events often coincide with local tops, especially in bull markets.
Crypto cycles are faster (typically 18 months), while metals like gold and silver move in 3–5 year timelines.
Crude oil's recent stagnation shows how macro factors like tariffs and recession fears can override seasonal patterns.
Commodities should be chosen based on correlation to the U.S. dollar and liquidity conditions.
Successful trading is 75% mindset and only 25% technical skill, especially in volatile markets like crypto.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/commodity-cycles-mukarram-mawjood-722