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Bloomberg Surveillance
CPI Reaction and Eco Impact of Trump or Harris Administrations
Oct 10, 2024
Cam Harvey, a Duke University professor examining economic data, joins Sarah House, a Wells Fargo economist focused on consumer insights. They discuss the latest CPI data and its implications for inflation and rate cuts. Rebecca Patterson analyzes market trends, while Mona Mahajan shares observations on client behavior. Nouriel Roubini critiques the economic impacts of potential Trump and Harris presidencies, and Richard Haass elaborates on geopolitical tensions ahead of the 2024 election, underscoring how these factors intertwine with economic forecasts.
52:19
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Quick takeaways
- The recent decline in shelter inflation suggests that the actual CPI may dip below 2%, complicating the Fed's interest rate strategies.
- Despite a cooling job market, real wage growth is outpacing inflation, bolstering consumer spending in mid and upper-income households.
Deep dives
Inflation Insights and Shelter's Impact
Current inflation data shows a slight decrease in the shelter component, dropping from 5.2% to 4.9% year over year. This shelter number plays a significant role in inflation calculations, comprising 36% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). If the shelter figure aligns more closely with reality, the actual inflation rate could potentially dip below 2%, which is substantially lower than the reported rate of 2.4%. This discrepancy highlights the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in making data-driven decisions about interest rates.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode