Simon Hunt - Market Crash in 2024 to Force Central Banks to Act
Feb 2, 2024
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Simon Hunt, market analyst, discusses economic trends like the potential for an economic depression and catalysts for deflation in 2024. He also touches on the risk of global conflicts, debt-driven growth in China, and the importance of transitioning to real assets like gold and silver amidst a market crash.
Forecasts indicate a 30% global equity market correction due to Middle East events, prompting central bank rate adjustments.
Concerns raised over inflated debt-to-GDP ratios and hidden real inflation rates posing risks to economic stability.
Deep dives
Prediction of a 30% Market Correction by Mid Year
The podcast predicts a significant 30% correction in equity markets globally and in base metal markets by mid this year or possibly by April. This projection is based on factors like the potential resurgence of oil prices due to Middle East events and warning signs indicating the escalation of the situation in the region. The forecast suggests that the Fed could be compelled to adjust and lower interest rates, leading to a domino effect on G7 central banks.
Concerns About Economic Growth and Inflation
The podcast expresses concerns regarding economic growth and inflation based on underlying data trends. It highlights issues such as the increase in debt compared to GDP growth, indicating a potential reliance on debt-driven growth rather than genuine economic expansion. The discussion delves into discrepancies in inflation calculations, suggesting that real inflation rates may be significantly higher than reported official figures.
Geopolitical Risks and Anticipated Global Conflict
Geopolitical risks are analyzed, with a focus on escalating tensions in regions like the Middle East, involving countries like Israel, Palestine, Iran, Russia, and the US. The episode anticipates a potential global conflict post-2025, drawing parallels to historical empires' paths towards war. Factors like alliances, treaties, and military strength are highlighted as contributors to the escalating risk of a broader conflict involving major world powers.
On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back Simon Hunt.
During our conversation we spoke about whether an economic depression is on the horizon, catalyst for a deflation, debt driven growth in China, risk of conflict and more!
0:00 - Introduction 1:45 - Economic Depression on Horizon? 9:10 - Catalyst for deflation? 10:40 - Geopolitics escalating to the point of a global conflict? 13:00 - Can China still be a threat to the US? 15:25 - Debt driven growth in China? 18:10 - BRICs vs the world? 21:50 - What impact will conflict have on the economy? 23:15 - What assets will perform during this period? 24:50 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961 he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organisation, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.
He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company’s cost studies and end-use analyses. He appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.
He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993 and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. He also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.
The focus of the company’s services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China’s economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.
Simon is the author of the “Frontline China Report Service,” which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China’s economy, politics, and financial outlook.