Morning Brew Daily US Takeover of Venezuela’s Oil Industry & BYD Zooms Past Tesla in EV Sales
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Jan 5, 2026 Neal and Toby dive into the dramatic U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Maduro and the implications for the oil industry. They discuss Trump’s strategy to involve U.S. oil companies in Venezuela, while also addressing the obstacles hindering this plan. A proposed wealth tax in California stirs controversy among tech billionaires. Meanwhile, BYD overtakes Tesla in electric vehicle sales, highlighting shifts in the market. Lastly, they preview the week ahead with insights on the CES and upcoming job reports.
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Venezuela’s Oil Potential Vs. Reality
- Venezuela holds 17% of the world's proven oil reserves but produces only a fraction due to neglected infrastructure and mismanagement.
- Restoring production needs massive capital and expertise, so immediate large-scale output gains are unrealistic.
Blockades Over Boots For Leverage
- The U.S. is using tanker blockades to exert leverage rather than outright occupation, aiming to cripple Venezuela's fiscal flows.
- Most Venezuelan oil goes through opaque channels to China and Russia, muting global supply shocks.
Huge Capex Needed To Reboot Output
- Estimates put required upstream investment to restore Venezuelan output at roughly $110 billion, a multiyear undertaking.
- Low oil prices and a global supply glut make such big investments commercially unattractive right now.
