What If A Coming Recession & Bear Market Are The LEAST Of Our Worries? | John Rubino
Jul 16, 2024
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Guest John Rubino discusses the dangers of mounting debt in the US and other G7 nations, questioning the potential catastrophic consequences. Topics include the risks of a global economic experiment, shorting stocks, commodity investments, investment strategies in the mining industry, and the importance of seeking financial advice and avoiding overconfidence.
Excessive debt accumulation historically leads to currency devaluation and economic turmoil.
Recessions act as a necessary economic reset by cleaning out malinvestments.
Government interventions during a recession can exacerbate debt levels and pose risks.
Deep dives
Economic Downturn Predicted in the Coming Year
An economic contraction is forecasted due to slowing consumer spending, slowing housing market activity, and potential equities bear market, possibly every 10 years. The excess savings accumulated during the pandemic have been spent, leading to rising personal debts and reduced consumer spending. Commercial real estate is facing challenges with plunging values, leading to potential banking crises, while soaring house prices and mortgage rates hinder average individual home purchases.
Global Economic Assessment and Financial Market Outlook
In the short term, a downturn is expected with key factors leading towards an equities bear market. Excess savings exhaustion and rising personal debts could result in a recession, affecting equities and consumer spending. The concept of a recession serving as a natural part of the economic cycle is highlighted, emphasizing its cleansing effect on malinvestment.
Impact of Government Spending and Central Bank Interventions
During a recession, government spending typically increases, leading to expanded deficits and potentially doubling the current crisis level in the US. Central banks are anticipated to act swiftly with quantitative easing (QE) programs to counter a recession and equities decline, possibly returning to negative interest rates. However, such interventions may pose inherent risks and contribute to a debt spiraling scenario.
Commodities Investment Strategy and Risk Management
A strategy focusing on commodities emphasizes the rising demand for materials in the context of global electrification. The commitment to physical ETFs storing commodities and minimizing counterparty risk is recommended for risk-averse investors. Diversification through royalty and streaming companies within the mining sector is highlighted as a lower-risk alternative for potential investment rewards.
Gold and Silver Positive Trends
Gold, silver, and mining ETFs are showing positive indicators of growth. The discussion highlights the breakout and consolidation phases in gold and silver, with projected targets of $2500+ for gold and $34 to $35 for silver. The potential acceleration of these trends is linked to noticeable movements in daily and weekly charts, indicating a promising future for these precious metals.
Concerns Over Market Stability and Economic Indicators
The podcast addresses concerns about market stability and economic indicators, emphasizing the importance of hedging strategies. Points raised include the vulnerability of current market valuations, signs of weakening job market data, and insights on potential recession triggers. Discussions also involve the cautious outlook on Federal Reserve actions, addressing the impact of rate cuts on financial assets and historical precedents in market reactions to rate adjustments.
History is full of examples where nations resorted to taking on ever-increasing amounts of debt to maintain a positive economic growth rate.
But it never works out well for those who do. Most often, they end up sacrificing the purchasing power of their currencies in the process.
Many analysts are now raising such concerns about the fast growing national, corporate and consumer debt pile in the US and other G7 nations.
Are we repeating the mistakes of history? Or is it truly different this time?
To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome monetary and macro analyst John Rubino, author and co-author of numerous books including The Money Bubble with James Turk.
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#debtcrisis #marketcorrection #recession
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