Episode #133: Zach Abuza, a professor at the National War College who shared his analysis of the Burmese military in our previous discussion, now turns his attention to the resistance movement.

While initially the concern about the Peoples’ Defense Force [PDFs] was that they were well -intentioned yet poorly trained individuals going up against a ruthless and brutal military, much has changed since. Every one of the country’s 330 townships now boasts at least one PDF unit, and they have steadily increased their supply of materiel. The PDFs were created “bottom-up,” with people coming together organically for the purpose of self-defense. Thus, most PDFs are regional, largely funded by the population they have been set up to protect, and from whom they derive their sense of legitimacy. But this “horizontal network” creates organizational and coordination challenges much more challenging, and chain of command unwieldy. The concern now is how to best manage them.

To try and impose discipline across the resistance, the NUG has tried to extract at least some kind of nominal pledge from these groups that they fight solely for the purpose of resisting the military, with the eventual goal of creating a federal democracy. However, this has become somewhat more challenging by the fact that the NUG has almost nothing to offer these now semi-autonomously functioning units in return for their allegiance—neither funds, nor arms, nor strategic military advice, nor on-the-ground leadership. Whatever challenges remain in this regard, Abuza is amazed at the spirit and courage the PDFs have shown.

Like many people, Abuza is keen to envision a post-Tatmadaw Myanmar, yet he is not optimistic by what he sees. “I could easily see the NUG winning the war and losing the peace, because they are unable to fulfill the aspirations of the EAOs and establish a true federal democracy.” Moreover, he wonders what would happen to these hundreds of PDF organizations throughout the country, which by that time will have become well-armed, effective fighting forces.

Farewell 2024