Insider Interview | Deterring China with Red Lines Backed by Capability and Resolve (feat. John Lee)
Jul 18, 2024
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John Lee, Hudson Senior Fellow, discusses deterring China by imposing non-military costs and forming an international coalition. Topics include dynamic deterrence, using monetary instruments to target Xi Jinping's interests, Taiwan's international recognition, and the strategic importance of Indo-Pacific countries in countering China.
Deterring China requires an international coalition with capability and resolve.
Dynamic deterrence is crucial to respond to China's incremental acts of aggression.
Deep dives
Deterrence Strategy to Prevent Chinese Aggression
To counter the possibility of war emphasized by Xi Jinping and China's threats to resolve the Taiwan issue forcefully, deterring China through cost imposition is crucial. Traditionally, deterrence focused on denying China's military aims, but there is a need to impose costs to deter China from crossing the threshold of war. Dr. Zhang Li highlights the significance of deterring China through cost imposition as part of a negotiating strategy to prevent conflict.
Dynamic Deterrence and Cost of Inaction
The podcast discusses the importance of dynamic deterrence over static approaches in countering aggression. Static deterrence involves setting red lines, while dynamic deterrence emphasizes the necessity of responding to incremental acts of aggression to prevent larger conflicts. By overlooking China's frequent incursions into Taiwan's airspace or waters, the international community risks allowing China to test boundaries and potentially launch a more substantial invasion in the future, emphasizing the critical impact of proactive deterrence measures.
Strategic Allies in Indo-Pacific for Deterrence
Key countries like Taiwan, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines play crucial roles in countering Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific region. Taiwan's ability to resist an invasion significantly impacts deterrence efforts. Additionally, Japan's strategic importance stems from its geographical position and military assets that aid in deterrence. The Philippines' bases and Australia's advanced defense capabilities, including satellite assets, radar systems, and cooperation with the U.S., contribute to strengthening deterrence in the region.
Utilizing Monetary Instruments for Deterrence
The podcast explores using monetary instruments to deter China, focusing on impacting Xi Jinping personally. By targeting Chinese firms vital to Xi's strategic initiatives through punitive actions like export controls and import restrictions, the U.S. aims to deter Chinese aggression by inflicting costs specifically on entities that matter to Xi Jinping. The discussion emphasizes the need for an institutionalized tit-for-tat response to effectively shape China's decision-making and deter potential conflicts.
Deterring the aggressive ambitions of Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party will require more than just setting red lines. Hudson Senior Fellow, John Lee, joins host Miles Yu to explain why it will require an international coalition with both the capability and resolve to effectively counter the CCP with strategies that both deny and impose cost.