RiskReversal Pod
Classic Late Cycle with Cameron Dawson and Luke Gromen
Oct 20, 2023
Cameron Dawson of NewEdge Wealth discusses late-cycle market behavior and rate cuts, enthusiasm around semiconductor stocks, credit cycles, geopolitics, Tesla's quarter, commercial real estate, and stocks into year-end. Luke Gromen talks about the global sovereign debt crisis, rates, Japan's currency crisis, the gold environment, and portfolio allocation.
01:26:51
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Quick takeaways
- Late-cycle market behavior is showing signs of stress and potential market volatility.
- Rising interest rates are starting to affect businesses and valuations, impacting certain sectors.
Deep dives
Late Cycle and the Potential for a Recession
There is a concern that the market is in a late cycle and that a recession could be on the horizon. While the equity market has been strong, the bond market is showing signs of stress. The definition of late cycle includes low unemployment and high interest rates, which are currently being observed. Evidence of stress is starting to appear with bankruptcies and pockets of weakness emerging. Higher interest rates could have an impact on earnings estimates and growth expectations, leading to potential market volatility.
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