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The Insight by Oaktree Capital

Performing Credit Quarterly 4Q2023: The Goldilocks Trap

Jan 30, 2024
Head of Performing Credit and Assistant Portfolio Manager discuss the risks and opportunities of 'Goldilocks thinking' prevalent in today's markets. Topics covered include the caution towards prevailing market narratives, impact of declining interest rates, populism and economic protectionism, credit card debt and future economic scenarios, risks and opportunities in commercial real estate and high-yield bonds, European bond issuance and CLO performance.
44:12

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Quick takeaways

  • The prevailing market narrative expects the US economy to be neither too hot nor too cold, caution is advised as this thinking appears to be reflected in today's asset prices.
  • Declining and ultra-low interest rates have been a significant market tailwind, however, this trend may reverse as banks face legacy issues and interest rates rise.

Deep dives

The Goldilocks trap of an overly optimistic market narrative

The prevailing market narrative for 2023 expects the US economy to be neither too hot nor too cold, and the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates without a recession. However, caution is advised as this thinking appears to be reflected in today's asset prices.

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