Performing Credit Quarterly 4Q2023: The Goldilocks Trap
Jan 30, 2024
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Head of Performing Credit and Assistant Portfolio Manager discuss the risks and opportunities of 'Goldilocks thinking' prevalent in today's markets. Topics covered include the caution towards prevailing market narratives, impact of declining interest rates, populism and economic protectionism, credit card debt and future economic scenarios, risks and opportunities in commercial real estate and high-yield bonds, European bond issuance and CLO performance.
The prevailing market narrative expects the US economy to be neither too hot nor too cold, caution is advised as this thinking appears to be reflected in today's asset prices.
Declining and ultra-low interest rates have been a significant market tailwind, however, this trend may reverse as banks face legacy issues and interest rates rise.
Deep dives
The Goldilocks trap of an overly optimistic market narrative
The prevailing market narrative for 2023 expects the US economy to be neither too hot nor too cold, and the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates without a recession. However, caution is advised as this thinking appears to be reflected in today's asset prices.
The weakening of long-term market tailwinds
Declining and ultra-low interest rates have been a significant market tailwind. However, this trend may reverse, especially as banks face legacy issues and interest rates rise. Other market tailwinds, such as globalization and financial deregulation, are also weakening, impacting economic growth and asset prices.
Potential risks and opportunities in credit markets
There are opportunities in high-yield bonds, with attractive yields and strong quality. Weakness in the banking system provides opportunities for alternative lenders. Pricing dynamics and changing consumer behavior in the residential real estate market should be closely monitored. Additionally, different asset classes, such as investment-grade credit, emerging markets debt, global convertibles, structured credit, and private credit, present their own risks and opportunities.
Markets to watch and potential scenarios
Possible macroeconomic scenarios for the near term include a soft or no landing, a hard landing, or a soft-ish landing. Various market conditions and factors, such as interest rate cuts, defaults, geopolitical events, and housing market dynamics, could influence these scenarios. It's important to be prepared and seek investments with sufficient shock absorbers.
In the latest Performing Credit Quarterly, Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit) and Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) discuss the “Goldilocks thinking” prevalent in today’s markets, highlighting the potential pitfalls and opportunities it’s creating. At a time when several long- and short-term economic tailwinds appear to be weakening, they consider the risk of assuming that everything will be just fine.