Zero: The Climate Race A return to coal? AI’s demand for gas turbines risks a new crisis: Bottlenecks Series
Oct 1, 2025
Bloomberg's Stephen Stapczynski, an expert on natural gas and LNG markets, discusses a critical gas turbine shortage linked to rising power demands from AI data centers. He dives into the complexities of how this shortage could influence energy companies' reliance on coal versus renewables. The duo explores the implications of gas as a so-called 'bridge' fuel and the challenges emerging markets face, particularly in Asia, while considering the future supply-demand landscape and potential disruptions that may exacerbate the crisis.
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Turbine Shortage Has Become A Global Crisis
- Global demand for large gas turbines has surged and lead times jumped from ~24 months to five years or more.
- AI data centers and coal-to-gas shifts in emerging markets are both driving unprecedented orders that outstrip capacity.
Market Concentration Keeps Supply Tight
- Three suppliers (GE/Vernova, Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Heavy) dominate roughly 70% of large turbine market.
- High technical barriers and decades of IP make market entry extremely difficult for newcomers.
Inside Siemens' Berlin Turbine Factory
- Akshat toured Siemens' historic Berlin factory and saw its massive turbine hall and precise manufacturing firsthand.
- He noted the plant produces 50–60 turbines a year with 3,000 workers and heritage building constraints.