From Venezuelan Oil to Nuclear Frontiers: Navigating Resource Markets with Robert Mullin

Jan 22, 2026

Robert Mullin, founder of Marathon Resource Advisors, offers a sharp perspective on the complexities of Venezuelan oil production and its market implications. He discusses the logistical and political hurdles that prevent a surge in output, challenging the notion of 'world's largest reserves.' Mullin also delves into the dynamics of sanctions, the role of service companies like Chevron, and the future of resource investments amid shifting commodity cycles. Plus, he explores opportunities in uranium and the geopolitical stakes involved in Arctic resources.

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INSIGHT

Venezuela Won't Be An Immediate Oil Flood

Venezuela's oil won't flood markets quickly because production and infrastructure are deeply broken.
Restarting output needs political stability, creditor settlements, and huge multi-year capital spending.

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INSIGHT

'Largest Reserves' Don't Mean Cheap Oil

Much Venezuelan oil is heavy, sour and technically complex, requiring diluents, desulfurization, and rebuilt grid and ports.
Economically recoverable reserves shrink sharply at low prices because extraction and rebuild costs are very high.

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ADVICE

Get Creditors Paid Before Investment Flows

Expect creditors and service companies must be paid to attract capital and expertise back into Venezuela.
Don't assume investors will pour money in without government guarantees or offtake/credit support.

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Initial Take on U.S. Move into Venezuela

00:14 • 1min

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Why Venezuelan Oil Won't Flood Markets Soon

01:19 • 2min

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Infrastructure, Stabilization, and Cost Challenges

03:20 • 2min

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Where Production Actually Sits and Who Owes Money

05:28 • 3min

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Which Companies Could Rebuild Venezuela

08:49 • 4min

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Reserves: Big Numbers Versus Economic Reality

12:31 • 3min

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True Cost Metrics for Heavy Oil Projects

15:40 • 35sec

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The Shadow Fleet and Sanctions Dynamics

16:14 • 4min

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Career Background and Investment Focus

20:34 • 2min

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Is Natural Resources Still a Market Sector?

22:48 • 1min

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Commodity Cycles and Sector Synchronization

24:18 • 4min

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Using Volatility and Options in Resource Investing

28:33 • 2min

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Dividend-Focused Long-Short Strategy

30:48 • 5min

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Schlumberger Example: Service Companies as Winners

35:25 • 5min

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Why Gulf Coast Refiners May Not Benefit Immediately

40:50 • 3min

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Precious Metals: Central Banks and Portfolio Role

43:46 • 6min

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Why Invest in Gold Stocks Over Bullion

50:09 • 5min

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Base Metals, Rare Earths, and Nickel Opportunities

55:38 • 1min

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Uranium and Nuclear Frontiers

57:06 • 3min

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Geopolitics, Arctic Strategy, and Resource Security

59:55 • 5min

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Broader Allocation Implications and Resource Scarcity

This week on The Derivative, Jeff Malec is joined by seasoned resource investor Robert Mullin for a reality check on Venezuelan oil and the market narratives surrounding it. They dig into why headlines calling for cheap oil miss the point, what it actually takes to restart a broken energy system, and why “world’s largest reserves” isn’t the bullish mic drop many assume. Along the way, they unpack sanctions, shadow tanker fleets, Gulf Coast refinery hype, and where the real economic constraints lie. It’s a sharp, grounded conversation focused on market structure, logistics, and context, cutting through the noise without relying on forecasts or recommendations. SEND IT!

Chapters:

00:00-00:12= Intro

00:13-12:25 = US Involvement in Venezuelan Oil & Challenges in Venezuelan Oil Production

12:26-20:16= The Role of International Companies & The Shadow Fleet and Sanctions

20:16-28:15= Commodity Cycles and Market Dynamics & Investment Strategies in Resource Equities

28:16-43:27= Investment Strategies in Resource Equities

& Navigating the Resource Sector's Challenges

43:28-49:52= Gold & Precious Metals: Investment Strategies, Central Bank Moves, and Market Dynamics

49:53-59:42= From Base Metals to Nuclear: Equity Strategies and the Future of Resource Investing

59:43-01:07:55= Nuclear Frontiers, Geopolitical Shifts, and the Changing Role of Resources in Global Markets

From the episode:

About those Higher Interest Rates (Lower Bond Prices) - RCM Alternatives Blog post

Follow along with Robert on LinkedIn and check out Marathon's website marathonresourceadvisors.com for more information

Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as legal, business, or tax advice. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of RCM Alternatives, their affiliates, or companies featured. Due to industry regulations, participants on this podcast are instructed not to make specific trade recommendations, nor reference past or potential profits. And listeners are reminded that managed futures, commodity trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. For more information, visit⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.rcmalternatives.com/disclaimer⁠⁠⁠⁠

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