FT News Briefing Predicting 2026: Will Ukraine finally get a peace deal?
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Dec 30, 2025 
Ben Hall, FT's Europe editor and expert on European politics, discusses the ongoing negotiations for a Ukraine peace deal. He initially predicted a resolution by 2025, driven by US pressure on Russia, but explains why that expectation faltered. Current updates reveal stalled diplomatic efforts and Russia's territorial demands. Hall emphasizes the significance of US-European cohesion to influence Moscow. The complexities of security guarantees and differing Western perspectives on Russia also reveal the delicate balance in these negotiations.
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Security Guarantee Timeframe Is A Core Divide
- Ukraine seeks a security guarantee similar to NATO's Article 5 to deter future Russian aggression.
- Kiev wants 50 years while the US reportedly offered 15 years, creating a major gap in talks.
Ben Hall's 2025 Prediction And Why It Failed
- Ben Hall said he predicted a 2025 peace deal because he expected a forceful President Trump to pressure Russia.
- He admits he was wrong because Trump did not sustainably pressure Moscow and often shifted to pro-Russian positions.
Talks Center On Territory And Guarantees
- Negotiations pivot around two main sticking points: territorial concessions in Donbass and security guarantees.
- The US-Russia 28-point plan favored Moscow and Ukraine and Europe have tried to revise it for Kyiv's interests.