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Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Demographic Time Bomb: US Population On Track To Start Shrinking By 2035 | Chris Hamilton
Feb 15, 2024
Chris Hamilton, publisher of Econimica, talks about the significant impact of demographic trends on various aspects including energy consumption, finance, economy, and housing. He highlights the worrying prediction that the US population is set to start shrinking by 2035 for the first time ever. The podcast explores the consequences of this trend on labor force participation, national debt, housing affordability, and the need for a debate on serving long-term interests versus free markets. It also discusses the importance of data analysis and learning from international perspectives to address these challenges.
01:33:38
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Quick takeaways
- The US population is projected to start shrinking by 2035 due to declining birth rates and an aging population, posing economic challenges.
- Immigration has been suggested as a potential solution to offset the decline in the native-born population, but effective policies must consider integration, economic contributions, and culture.
Deep dives
Declining working-age population driving economic challenges
The working-age population in the US is in decline, leading to economic challenges. The employment population ratio among the 25 to 54-year-old cohort has been decreasing since 2000, coinciding with recessionary periods. As the population shifts towards older age groups, the potential for employee growth diminishes. This decline in the working-age population has had negative effects on families, with a decline of 4 million families with children since 2007. The issue is further compounded by the rise in housing units compared to the decline in families with children, resulting in an affordability crisis and a concentration of housing ownership among those with higher income and assets.
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