The Mustard Seed—a bitcoin and long-term thinking podcast Bitcoin, the business cycle, and the coming wave of monetary easing with Joe Consorti
Nov 6, 2025
In this discussion, Joe Consorti, a macro and markets commentator, delves into Bitcoin's latest price dynamics and the silent shifts among long-term holders. He argues that recent sell-offs may actually indicate strength, highlighting key support levels at $95,000 and $100,000. Joe explores the ramifications of rising socialism tied to economic discrepancies and warns about the risks linked to concentrated equity markets. Additionally, he underscores how Bitcoin's movements reflect the business cycle more than its halving, hinting at an upcoming rally driven by easing financial conditions.
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Supply Redistribution Signals Strength
- Bitcoin's recent sell-offs reflect a large redistribution of supply from long-term holders to new holders.
- Quick bounces above $100,000 show buy-side absorption and resilience in the market.
Monitor $95K/$100K Key Levels
- Watch $95,000 as the average short-term/network cost basis and $100,000 as key support.
- If price breaks and stays below $95,000, expect prolonged downside rather than an immediate resume uptrend.
Spot Capitulation Is Healthy
- Recent drawdowns were dominated by spot selling and capitulation from short-term holders.
- Spot capitulation followed by a rally is healthy and suggests genuine distribution rather than forced liquidations.