Why this strategist raised their recession odds

On this week’s Trader Talk, host Kenny Polcari stresses that emotional trading—chasing hot stocks or panic-selling at minor dips—is a surefire way to lose. Instead, decisions should hinge on strategy and data.

Guest Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco, raises U.S. recession odds to 30–35%, citing four simultaneous “swing factors”: tariffs, China’s stimulus uncertainty, renewed inflation pressures, and looming spending cuts. This combination has rattled corporate plans and heightened market volatility.

The bottom line? Markets hate guesswork and emotional overreactions. Polcari and Hooper agree that level-headed, well-researched approaches outperform impulsive trades every time.

Porcini Rubbed Rib-Eye (Tagliata Style)

Ingredients

Porcini Rub

• 1 oz dried porcini mushrooms (ground into a fine powder)
• 2 tablespoons sugar
• 1 tablespoon salt & pepper (combined)
• 4 garlic cloves, chopped
• ¼ cup olive oil

Steak & Garnish

• 1 bone-in rib-eye steak (or preferred cut)
• Additional salt (for seasoning the steak)
• 1 tablespoon olive oil (for searing)
• Arugula (a handful)
• Thinly sliced red onion
• 1 lemon (for fresh lemon juice)
• Shaved parmesan cheese

Steps

• Make the Porcini Rub
• Combine the ground porcini, sugar, salt & pepper, chopped garlic, and olive oil in a bowl.
• Mix into a paste-like consistency.
• (Optional: Make a larger batch to store in the fridge for future use.)

• Season & Rub
• Lightly salt the rib-eye.
• Massage the porcini rub all over the steak, coating thoroughly.

• Preheat Oven
• Heat your oven to 400°F.

• Sear the Steak
• Heat 1 tablespoon of olive oil in a large cast iron skillet over medium-high heat.
• Carefully place the steak in the hot skillet and sear until browned on each side.

• Finish in the Oven
• Move the cast iron skillet with the steak into the preheated oven.
• Cook for 5–8 minutes, depending on thickness, until an instant-read thermometer in the center reaches 135°F (for medium-rare).

• Rest the Steak
• Remove from the oven and tent the steak with foil.
• Let it rest for 10 minutes to retain its juices.

• Slice & Plate
• Slice the steak at an angle (tagliata style) and fan out on a serving platter.
• Arrange arugula and red onion slices on the plate.
• Place the sliced steak on top, drizzle with a bit more olive oil and a squeeze of fresh lemon juice.
• Top with shaved parmesan cheese.

Trader Talk with Kenny Polcari on Yahoo Finance delivers expert analysis and actionable insights. Drawing on decades of trading floor experience, we empower you to navigate market volatility and keep your portfolio from getting burned.

Watch more episodes of Trader Talk at https://finance.yahoo.com/videos/series/trader-talk/

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Yahoo Finance’s Trader Talk is hosted by Kenny Polcari and produced by Langston Sessoms.