32: Buying the bottom

Dec 30, 2023

The hosts discuss the view that the real estate market has hit bottom and now is a good time to buy with decreasing inflation and the possibility of the Fed cutting rates. They explore the relationship between asset valuation and interest rates, analyze the relationship between recessions, interest rates, and real estate prices, and discuss labor hoarding strategies in the construction and mortgage industries. They also explore hidden subsidies in the market, delays in the market, and potential impacts on real estate prices.

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INSIGHT

Real Estate Market Bottom

Ben Miller believes the real estate market has bottomed.
Falling interest rates are expected to drive strong positive performance.

INSIGHT

Impact of Interest Rates

Interest rate hikes have negatively impacted all real estate sectors.
Ben Miller is bearish on office space but bullish on most other sectors.

INSIGHT

Real Estate vs. Stocks

Real estate is currently priced at significant discounts compared to stocks.
This makes private real estate markets attractive due to the discounts.

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In this final Onward episode of 2023 co-hosts Cardiff Garcia and Fundrise CEO Ben Miller kick things off by discussing Ben’s major market call: The conclusion that the real estate market has hit bottom. After 18 months of escalating interest rates punishing the real estate industry, small businesses, and regional banks, we’ve entered a new period where we expect the move to falling rates to propel strong positive performance. Ben walks Cardiff through his view of the state of the economy, both macro and specific to real estate, furnished with data points drawn from top-down market analysis, bottom-up, and anecdotal evidence, referencing confidential third-party sources and Fundrise’s own portfolio of assets. Most importantly, after a year of market turbulence, the market’s trough means that it’s time for investors to shift their attitude and become opportunistic about buying along the bottom. Lastly, it’s key to note that this episode of Onward was recorded to enhance and be enhanced by the Fundrise 2023 year-end letter to investors, available at https://fundrise.com/investor-update/1123/view, and should be listened to alongside that letter, where readers will find a more thorough assessment of Fundrise’s own portfolio, along with our team’s thoughts on what the future may hold. As 2023 comes to an end and we enter a new phase for the market with the start of 2024, Onward.

Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at Onward@Fundrise.com.

Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise, and Cardiff Garcia, co-founder of Bazaar Audio and host of the economics-focused podcast The New Bazaar (after spending many years as the co-creator and co-host of NPR's The Indicator podcast).

Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada.

About Fundrise
With over 2 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button.

Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund’s offering document(s).

Want to see the specific properties that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.