Conversations: Volatility Ahead? Featuring Howard Marks, Armen Panossian, and David Rosenberg
May 6, 2024
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Howard Marks, Armen Panossian, and David Rosenberg discuss market uncertainties, economic trends post-2020, LTS's strategic shifts, credit market challenges, the value of patience in investing, and the impact of private debt on credit markets in an insightful and engaging podcast episode.
Acknowledge uncertainty to prevent extreme risks and foster balanced outcomes in markets.
Economic classifications and market dynamics are evolving, challenging traditional frameworks and emphasizing technical factors.
Deep dives
Uncertainty in Markets and Importance of Doubt
In a discussion with Oaktree Co-chairman Howard Marks, the uncertainty in current markets due to various exogenous events like Ukraine, Gaza, and the Fed's actions is highlighted. Marks emphasizes the danger of being overconfident in predicting the future, stating that when people are convinced they know what will happen, it often leads to bubbles and crashes. He suggests that acknowledging uncertainty is healthier as it prevents extreme risks and contributes to more balanced outcomes.
Recession in 2020 and Its Impact on Cyclical Framework
The podcast delves into the economic events of 2020, arguing whether it constituted a recession or not. Howard Marks questions the traditional definition of a recession based on consecutive negative GDP growth quarters, highlighting the unique circumstances of 2020's economic impact. The uncertainty around classifying the events of 2020 challenges the typical cyclical framework and raises questions about the current economic cycle's chronological age.
Oaktree's Armin Panosian discusses the technical factors bolstering markets despite fundamental uncertainties. He highlights the influence of past and ongoing stimulus packages, infrastructure spending, and evolving investor psychology on market stability. Panosian underscores the importance of understanding technical tailwinds in offsetting uncertainties and navigating the market's current high-rate environment.
Private Debt's Transformation of Credit Markets
David Rosenberg explores the significant impact of private debt on the credit landscape, altering the dynamics of public markets. He emphasizes how the shift of riskier deals to the private market has affected default rate expectations in the loan market, offering insights into investment opportunities and risks influenced by private debt trends. Rosenberg underscores the need for investors to focus on idiosyncratic risk factors and business fundamentals amidst evolving market conditions.
Where are we in the market cycle? Why is it healthy to be uncertain? And what does it mean to actually “be opportunistic”? In the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations, Howard Marks (Co-Chairman), Armen Panossian (Co-CEO), and David Rosenberg (Head of Liquid Performing Credit) discuss these and other topics from the recently published Performing Credit Quarterly 1Q2024: Unusually Uncertain.
You can listen to the Performing Credit Quarterly 1Q2024 in the prior episode in this feed.
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