Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler Talks Economic Consequences of a Second Trump Administration

Jun 24, 2025

Gary Gensler, former SEC Chair and MIT professor, discusses the economic consequences of a second Trump administration. He reveals insights from his co-authored book, highlighting the critical role of stable coins and looming regulatory challenges. Gensler analyzes potential tariff impacts on growth and the changing landscape of private credit and U.S.-China relations. He also examines how AI could reshape the job market and the implications for labor under new immigration policies, stressing the need to learn from historical financial risks.

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INSIGHT

Stable Coins' Geopolitical Risk

Stable coins offer an alternative way to move dollars outside traditional banking systems, raising risks of evading sanctions and money laundering laws.
This could undermine U.S. geopolitical influence as stable coin markets grow significantly.

ANECDOTE

Tether's Original Purpose

Tether was invented as a poker chip equivalent to move crypto on exchanges lacking bank accounts.
This allows sidestepping money laundering and sanctions controls, enabling large interest income capture for companies.

INSIGHT

Tariffs Hurt Rural Economy

Tariffs impose a large tax increase, pressure economic growth downward, and increase inflation.
They particularly harm rural communities dependent on agricultural exports and don't necessarily help manufacturing sectors.

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Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration

A preliminary assessment

Gary Gensler

Simon Johnson

The book is co-authored by Gary Gensler and Simon Johnson. It discusses the potential economic impacts of policies under a second Trump administration, including tariffs and changes to global alliances. Experts contributed to the book and believe that tariffs are going to put downward pressure on economic growth and upward pressure on inflation. The book also covers the impact of immigration policies on the US economy, forecasting a reduction in growth. It is available for free at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) website.

Too big to fail

The Inside Story of How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial System---and Themselves

Andrew Ross Sorkin

Too Big to Fail by Andrew Ross Sorkin provides a minute-by-minute account of the events surrounding the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The book chronicles the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent efforts by Wall Street and Washington to save the financial system. It is based on hundreds of interviews with top executives and regulators, offering a detailed and dramatic narrative of the crisis, including the motivations of ego, greed, fear, and self-preservation that drove the key players. The book also explores the intricate web of decisions and actions that led to the crisis and the measures taken to mitigate its impact.

The curse of cash

Kenneth Rogoff

13 Bankers

James Kwak

Simon Johnson

Simon Johnson's '13 Bankers' examines the role of the financial industry in shaping economic policy and contributing to financial crises. Johnson argues that a small group of powerful bankers has exerted undue influence over government decisions, leading to deregulation and excessive risk-taking. The book traces the history of financial regulation in the United States and the rise of the 'too big to fail' institutions. It explores the causes of the 2008 financial crisis and the government's response, including the bailout of the financial industry. Johnson warns of the dangers of unchecked financial power and calls for reforms to prevent future crises.