Talking Geopolitics Why America's Crisis Is Predictable: George Friedman on US Cycles & Trump's Role
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Oct 15, 2025 
George Friedman, Chairman of Geopolitical Futures and a renowned geopolitical forecaster, shares his insights on America's current crises and the broader cycles shaping its future. He discusses the inevitable shift away from the Cold War-era global economy and the impact of the US-China trade tensions. Friedman examines the 80-year government cycle and the ongoing culture war, arguing that Trump's role reflects deeper societal changes. He emphasizes the need for the US to limit its global exposure while navigating the tumultuous landscape of domestic reinvention.
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Danger Of Economic-Military Ambiguity
- The US-China relationship is simultaneously economic and military, creating dangerous ambiguity.
- Friedman argues disentangling economic dependence reduces the probability of conflict.
Cold War Economy Is No Longer Normal
- The post-1945 global economic order was shaped by Cold War needs and is now obsolete.
- Friedman says both military and economic relationships must shift regardless of who is president.
Recurring Culture Wars Every 50 Years
- The socioeconomic cycle is a recurring culture war that peaks roughly every 50 years.
- Friedman frames the 2020s as a predictable storm of social division followed by eventual calm.
