Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 52: What's Bugging the Bond Market? With Noelle Acheson
May 14, 2025
Noelle Acheson, author of "Crypto Is Macro Now," dives deep into the complexities of the bond market and its disconnect from soft CPI data. She discusses the implications of Treasury yields, the potential market impact of a tariff pause, and what Coinbase joining the S&P 500 could mean. Acheson also highlights Ethereum's surprising upturn and the dollar's decline, suggesting it may boost crypto and risk assets. Her insights bridge traditional finance and the evolving world of digital currencies.
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Bond Market Signals Exit
- The rise in the 10-year Treasury yield reflects a false sense of softening inflation and an increase in risk premium.
- Foreign investors are exiting U.S. assets, contributing to the pressure on yields and affecting market liquidity.
Dollar Decline Signals Risk
- The U.S. dollar's decline indicates foreigners are not buying into the idea that tariff risks are over.
- A falling dollar is a crucial metric suggesting ongoing capital exit despite tariff pause hopes.
Fiscal Discipline vs Bond Market
- The U.S. bond market demands fiscal discipline but expects growing deficits and more bond issuance.
- The administration may intervene with liquidity measures like yield curve control or capital rule changes to keep bond yields low.