Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 1st, 2025
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Oct 1, 2025 Jon Lieber, Managing Director at Eurasia Group, analyzes the political ramifications of the federal government shutdown. He highlights potential long-term impacts and the dynamics within Democratic leadership. Greg Daco, Chief Economist at EY, dissects the latest ADP payrolls data, warning about shifts in labor market conditions and the risks to corporate profitability amid a K-shaped recovery. Tiffany Wilding from PIMCO discusses how monetary policy might respond to weakening labor indicators and the nuanced effects of tariffs on the economy.
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A New, Selective Type Of Shutdown
- The Trump administration will selectively deem functions "essential" and prioritize which parts of the government continue operating.
- That makes this shutdown qualitatively different and more unpredictable than prior ones.
Short Shutdown Is The Base Rate
- Political pressure makes a short shutdown the base case because a few Democrats can reopen the government.
- Jon Lieber expects more Democrats to break and end the shutdown within days to weeks.
Shutdowns Rarely Move Elections
- Past shutdowns show little evidence of lasting electoral effects for either party.
- Voter blame may be diffuse and not decisively punish one side.