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Surviving the Liquidity Crisis: Everything You Need to Navigate This Cycle w/ Michael Howell

Aug 5, 2025

Guest

Michael Howell

In this conversation with Michael Howell, founder of Cross-Border Capital, listeners dive into the intricate world of global liquidity. Howell reveals the significant risks of a looming $40 trillion debt rollover and its potential to disrupt financial systems. He discusses why bond market stability is crucial, the perils of Treasury-based quantitative easing, and the effects of China's liquidity injections. Howell highlights indicators for a liquidity crisis and advises on positioning for monetary inflation, advocating for strategies like TIPS and crypto investments.

50:55

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INSIGHT

Fiscal Dominance Drives Policy

Fiscal dominance means fiscal policy drives monetary policy, not the reverse.
Michael Howell argues monetary inflation, not financial repression, now defines policy.

insights

INSIGHT

Debt Needs Liquidity And Collateral

Debt must be refinanced and that process requires liquidity and good collateral.
A failing Treasury market can collapse liquidity generation and derail economies.

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INSIGHT

Bond Volatility Is The Core Risk

The Fed and Treasury prioritize low bond volatility because collateral stability underpins the whole system.
Measures like the MOVE index and repo spreads signal refinancing stress risks.

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Why the World Economy Shows No Recession

01:37 • 3min

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Why Bond Market Stability Matters More Than Growth

04:22 • 10min

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Risks of Treasury-Based QE and Short-Dated Issuance

Why Rebuilding the Treasury General Account Could Suck Liquidity

20:31 • 6min

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Who Provides Global Liquidity and Balance Sheet Capacity

26:27 • 5min

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China's Massive Liquidity Injection and Its Effects

31:48 • 4min

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How US Treasury QE and China Liquidity Combine Globally

35:46 • 6min

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Signals to Watch for a Liquidity Peak and Crisis

42:04 • 4min

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How Investors Should Position for Monetary Inflation

• Mentioned in 19 episodes

A history of interest rates

Sidney Homer

This book presents a comprehensive analysis of interest rates from ancient times to the modern era. Despite the limited data before the Industrial Revolution, the authors offer a highly detailed examination of money markets and borrowing practices in major economies. The book asserts that free market long-term interest rates serve as a 'fever chart' of a nation's economic and political health, highlighting the significant volatility of rates in the 20th century and its implications for understanding economic and political excesses.

In this episode, we sit down with Michael Howell, the godfather of global liquidity, to decode the real risks lurking behind today’s markets. Forget the noise about rate cuts or inflation targets; the real story is about monetary inflation, fiscal dominance, and a looming $40 trillion debt rollover that could flip the financial system upside down.

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🎙 GUEST INFO 🎙

CrossBorder Capital

X: https://x.com/crossbordercap

Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/

Website: https://www.crossbordercapital.com/

📃 Disclaimer 📃

The information presented in this video is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered as financial, legal. The views and opinions expressed by the speakers, are their own and do not constitute professional advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries significant risks, including the potential for substantial losses.

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