What A Day Will Trump's Trade Truce With China Last?
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Oct 31, 2025 Evan Madeiros, Penner Family Chair in Asia Studies at Georgetown University, delves into the nuances of Trump's recent trade truce with Xi Jinping. He reveals that the deal, based on vague tactics, offers more short-term relief for China than significant advantages for the U.S. Madeiros contrasts this approach with Trump's earlier strategies and highlights the minimal gains for both sides. He also discusses the potential impacts and key developments to monitor in U.S.-China relations following Trump's Asia trip.
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Limited, Tactical Trade Truce
- The trade truce with China is narrow and tactical, mainly lowering tariffs and suspending some export controls.
- It primarily opens 10–12 months of high-level diplomacy rather than delivering deep, binding changes.
China's Tech Goal And Tariff Gain
- China sought advanced AI chips and broader tech access but didn't secure the most advanced U.S. chips due to prior export controls.
- The tariff cut they received (10%) makes Chinese exports more competitive regionally, shifting trade dynamics.
From Strategic Competition To Dealmaking
- Trump moved from a competitive script in his first term to prioritizing transactional commercial deals with autocratic leaders.
- That shift risks undermining long-term U.S. strategic competition and alliances.