EP159 - 2019 Predictions and 2018 Recap

Jan 9, 2019

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EP159 - 2019 Predictions and 2018 Recap

Our annual predictions episode for 2019 and a recap of our 2018 predictions.

2018 Recap - Predictions made on episode 112

Scot

Mallageddon 2.0 - We saw 7000 stores close in 2017, I think this accelerates in 2018 as the 30-40% of weak malls fail closures. YES
Amazon will NOT buy another offline retailer, triples down on private label. YES
Amazon will squarely get in the last mile business in 2018 and compete with FedEx and UPS. NO
Amazon’s ad group will get so large that they have to break out details about it and everyone will be shocked at how large it has gotten so quickly YES
Walmart will make a big M+A - top candidates would be Instacart, postmates and eBay. YES
Somebody acquires Magento, or they go public. YES

5/6

Bonus - Amazon comes out with Alexa powered wireless earbuds - because I want them. NO

Jason

Grocery gets disrupted by digital (led by curbside pickup). Digital grocery doubles in US, at least one delivery firm peters out.YES
Drug gets disrupted by digital. NO
AI Gap - biggest trend of 2018 NO
Voice - Huge but not for commerce. YES
Payments - Retail digital wallets die (except Starbucks/Walmart/Amazon). Bitcoin tanks. YES

3/5

Bonus - Amazon launches a wearable. NO .

Scot crushes Jason!

2019 Predictions

Scot

At least 5k more store closures in 2019
Amazon - Prof Galloway is big on Amazon having to create a AWS spinoff and has moderated that to tracking stock. I’m going to predict Amazon doesn’t do either of those things. But this WILL be the year they break ads out.
eBay/Alibaba - I think this is the year when the both need to do something big and the stars are aligning for a combination there.
Shopify gets acquired by one of the big ad-based companies (facebook/google most likely)
Walmart stumbles in e-commerce

Jason

Amazon store count exceeds 1000 stores
Walmart buys a last mile firm
Another big bankruptcy (going to be a tougher than expected year, JCP, category killers Office, BBBY, Neiman)
Mobile commerce revenue passes Desktop - Aided by PWA’s, and payment API’s we see mobile gap narrow
Fads (Voice Commerce, Customer facing AI, SocialCommerce, VR BlockChain)

Bonus: Amazon breaks out Prime revenue.

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Episode 159 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Sunday, January 6th, 2019.