A Party in Trump's Image | Interview: Patrick Ruffini
Nov 22, 2023
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Patrick Ruffini, Republican pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights, joins Andrew Egger to discuss Trump's activation of the populist coalition, the shift in non-white voting habits, and the role of pro-life politics. They explore Trump's surprising support among Hispanic and Black voters, the impact of educational attainment on political divisions, and the challenges and opportunities for the Republican Party.
Donald Trump attracted more non-white working class voters by presenting a tough, populist style of Republican candidate over the kinder, gentler version proposed by the Republican establishment after 2012.
Educational polarization has reshaped the political landscape, with lower-income voters aligning with the Republican coalition and higher-income voters leaning Democratic.
Deep dives
Donald Trump's ability to attract non-white working class voters
Despite conventional wisdom that Republicans needed to soften their message to appeal more to non-white voters, Donald Trump was able to attract more non-white working class voters than any Republican in a generation. This suggests that there was an undercurrent sentiment among these communities that preferred a more tough guy, populist style of Republican candidate rather than the kinder, gentler version proposed by the Republican establishment after 2012.
Changing dynamics of education and its impact on politics
The role of education as a dividing line in politics has evolved over time. While income used to be the main differentiating factor, the increasing polarization along educational lines has become more important. This shift is evident in the voting patterns of white college-educated and non-college-educated voters. In 1996, they voted similarly, but by 2020, there was a 39-point gap between these two groups. This educational polarization has reshaped the political landscape, with more lower-income voters aligning with the Republican coalition and higher-income voters leaning Democratic.
The impact of shifting focus from traditional material issues to cultural issues in politics
As society becomes wealthier, voters can afford to prioritize cultural issues over immediate economic concerns. This shift has led to a decline in the traditional material issues focus of political parties. Wealthier voters, particularly college-educated white voters, have become more inclined to prioritize social identity-type issues rather than economic matters. This trend has had an impact on the Democratic Party, which is increasingly driven by issues like abortion and democracy, which resonate strongly with college-educated voters. However, it also presents challenges as these cultural issues, such as abortion, can be divisive and potentially alienate certain voter groups.
The challenges and opportunities for the Republican Party
The Republican Party faces challenges in navigating the post-Trump era and maintaining the multiracial populist coalition. One challenge is associated with abortion being a divisive issue that has benefited Democrats in recent years. Republicans may need to find a way to address this issue without alienating key voter groups. However, the success of candidates like Glenn Youngkin and Ron DeSantis suggests that the coalition can be maintained and potentially expanded. The ability to attract working-class voters without losing Trump's base will be crucial for the Republican Party's success in future elections.
Andrew Egger is joined by Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights. The two discuss the shift in non-white voting habits, how Trump activated the populist coalition on the right, and the role of pro-life politics in that coalition.