This podcast discusses America's policy towards Taiwan, the potential consequences of China annexing Taiwan, Taiwan's progress in digital affairs and defense against disinformation, and the prospect of conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
49:23
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Quick takeaways
Accelerated preparations are needed in deploying potent weapons and reorganizing armed forces to change China's calculus and ensure deterrence.
Lessons from the conflict in Ukraine highlight the importance of enhancing Taiwan's defensive capabilities to create a stronger deterrent against China.
Deep dives
Implications for Policymakers, Academics, and Practitioners
The mounting tensions over the Taiwan Strait present a significant risk to international security, and policymakers, academics, and practitioners need to take immediate action. The policy of strategic ambiguity should be maintained, but there is a need for accelerated preparations. This includes deploying a potent mix of weapons, both in Taiwan and within the United States Armed Forces, as well as rethinking and reorganizing the armed forces. The urgency of the situation requires multi-year changes, such as enhancing production capacity, securing supply chains, and strengthening civil defense. Time is of the essence, and decisive action is needed to change China's calculus and ensure deterrence.
Lessons from Ukraine
The conflict in Ukraine provides valuable lessons for understanding the risks and challenges in the Taiwan Strait. It highlights the failure of deterrence in preventing aggression and emphasizes the importance of preparedness. Lessons can be drawn from the events in Ukraine to create a stronger and more effective deterrent against China. These lessons include enhancing Taiwan's asymmetric defensive capabilities, such as utilizing advanced technologies like synthetic aperture radar and cyber defenses, as well as acquiring smart and effective weapon systems. The events in Ukraine demonstrate the need to act swiftly and decisively to ensure that deterrence has teeth.
Maintaining Strategic Ambiguity
The current policy of strategic ambiguity should be maintained, as it provides flexibility in relations with China and helps maintain the status quo in Taiwan. Strategic ambiguity allows for diplomatic relations with China while signaling the United States' commitment to Taiwan's defense. Changing to a policy of strategic clarity or providing unambiguous commitments could have unintended consequences and provoke escalation. The focus should be on backing up the policy of strategic ambiguity with concrete actions, such as enhancing Taiwan's defensive capabilities and building a strong network of allies that can demonstrate the potential consequences of aggression.
Accelerating Preparations and Overcoming Obstacles
Policymakers face the challenge of accelerating preparations to ensure readiness for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Obstacles include the slow pace of democracy, the need for increased agility in budgeting and procurement, and the multi-year lead times required for changes. There is a need for urgent action, including reorganizing and rethinking the United States Armed Forces, establishing stronger supply chains for critical resources like semiconductors, and fostering a sense of urgency and unity among allies. Overcoming these obstacles is crucial to effectively deter China and protect Taiwan's sovereignty.